The BJP leader, B.S. Yedyurappa seems to be emerging as the most popular choice as the next Chief Minster, with 27 percent voters expressing themselves in  his favour.
The JD (S) leader H.D Kumaraswamy is placed next to Yedyurappa, with 22 percent support.   The Congress leader S.M Krishna comes third. This may be on account of the fact that he was Chief Minister more than four years ago and there are other prominent leaders in his party in the race for the Chief Ministership.   Mallikarjun Kharge comes a distant fourth with five percent voters endoring his candidature. Other leadaers who found a mention were Dharam Singh and Siddaramaiah. Who finally becomes the Chief Minister would be a total different story but the popular choice in the middle of April 2008 is captured above. 

It is important to record the methodology followed when asking this question. Respondents were not offered a menu of names. They were asked to mention the name of person they would like to see in the Chief Ministers position without prompting or hinting any name.   

It would be useful to record that from within the BJP, the only Chief Ministerial candidate that has captured the imagination of the voters is Yedyurappa. Simialrly in the JD(S), Kumaraswamy is seen as the only viable Chief Miniterial candidate. In the Congress on the other hand there are several leaders in the race. This may account for the fact that none of the Congress leaders individually comes very close to either the BJP or JDS Chief Ministerial candidate.  

While there is hardly any difference in terms of popularity of different leaders amongst the rural and the urban voters,  Yedyurappa seems to be more popular amongst the rural voters compared to their urban counterparts.  The support for Yedurappa is not merely from his Lingayat community and the Other Upper Castes but is across major caste groups. The only exception is in the case of the Muslims.  The JD (S) leader Kumaraswamy’s popularity is high amongst voters from the Vokalliga  community, but he also seems to be popular amongst Adivasis. He also manages to draw support from various other caste communities.  Kharge being a senior Dalit leader himself is  more popular among the Dalits and Muslims. 

The fact that the Congress has not projected its Chief Ministerial candidate unlike the other two parties, may account for the split in the verdict of traditional Congress voters. A  little over one-fourth amongst the traditional Congress supporters mentioned the name of S.M Krishna as their popular choice for the Karnataka’s next Chief Minster. The two Congress leaders, Amongst the traditional Congress supporters, 15 percent preferred Kumaraswamy and another 14 percent mentioned that name of Yedyurappa as their choice for Chief Minster. Only  7 percent mentioned the name of Dharam Singh and another 5 percent mentioned the name of Siddaramiah as their preferred choice for next Chief Minister. A majority of the traditional BJP and JD (S) supporters, named their respective leaders, when asked to mention their choice as the next Chief Minister.   

While Kumaraswamy and S.M Krishna remain more or less equally popular amongst voters both educated and uneducated voters,  Yediyurappa’s popularity seems to be quite high amongst the college graduates or amongst those who have attained much higher education.  

The BJP does not seem to be gaining in popularity compared to the last assembly elections, but Yediyurappa’s popularity has increased over the same period. What still remains a puzzle is, why Yediyurappa has not been able to pull the popularity of the party in-spite of himself being so popular?  

Yediyurappa leads popularity chart for Chief Minster

B.S Yediyurappa	27
H.D Kumaraswamy	22
S.M Krishna	16
Mallikarjunan Kharge	5
Dharam Singh	4
Siddaramia	3
Ananth Kumar	1
M.P Prakash	1

Note: All figures are in percent. Rest named other leaders. This question was asked open-ended.

Question wording: Who would you prefer as the next Chief Minister of Karnataka?

Yediyurappa’s popularity has steadily increased

	2004	2006	2007	2008
S.M Krishna	34	15	12	16
B.S Yediyurappa	7	9	13	27
H.D Kumaraswamy	--	--	34	22
Ananth Kumar	10	3	4	1
Dharam Singh	4	14	9	4
Deve Gowda	5	9	2	--

Note: All figures are in percent. ‘--’ less than 1 percent.

Divided loyalties, but Yediyurappa’s popularity more broad based

	B.S Yediyurappa	H.D Kumaraswamy	S.M Krishna	Mallikarjunan Kharge	Dharam Singh
Upper Caste	39	16	16	3	3
Vokalika	17	44	18	3	2
Lingayat	47	15	8	4	2
Dalit	18	19	18	10	6
Adivasi	22	26	18	4	5
Muslim	10	17	28	8	7

Note: All figures are in percent.

BJP’s traditional supporters more polarized in favour of their leader

	Yediyurappa	Kumaraswamy	S.M Krishna
All	27	22	16
Traditional Congress supporters	13	15	27
Traditional J.D (S) supporters	14	54	6
Traditional BJP supporters	59	9	5

Note: All figures are in percent

Yediyurappa is more popular amongst the educated

	Yediyurappa	Kumaraswamy	S.M Krishna
Non Literate	10	22	15
Primary Scholl	28	18	20
Matric pass	27	25	16
Graduates or more	32	21	16

Note: All figures are in percent