If the Congress can hold on to the handsome lead it enjoys at the beginning of the race till the day of polling, the JD(S) may not get to play the “kingmaker” role that it is hoping for. Even if the Congress fails to maintain the tempo, it looks very unlikely that the BJP may be able to fulfill its dream of securing a clear majority.

The pre-poll survey asked 5,124 registered voters across the State to use a dummy “secret” ballot to indicate their voting preference if “elections were to take place tomorrow”.

Party position
A count of these dummy votes shows that if elections were held in the week before nominations, the Congress would have secured 39 per cent of the popular votes, leaving the BJP and the JD(S) way behind at 28 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.

With just 2 per cent of popular support, the BSP has not yet emerged as a significant player. The JD(U) was placed even lower, struggling to register its presence. It should be noted though that surveys of this kind tend to under-estimate smaller parties. The handsome lead of 11 percentage points does not indicate any dramatic reversal in the fortunes of the Congress. Though the party had finished a poor second in terms of seats in the last assembly elections, the Congress was 5 points ahead of the BJP-JD(U) combine in terms of vote share even in 2004. Since then, the Congress appears to have made a modest gain of about 4 percentage points, 2 each at the expense of the BJP-JD(U) combine and the JD(S). The BJP does not appear to have gained much from the voters’ sympathy at the way its government was brought down. Nor has the JD(S) lost as much of its political ground as it was expected to.

With an unusually large proportion, more than a third, saying that they can still change their mind, the contest is still open. But non-Congress parties cannot take much consolation here. Those who are still undecided are more likely to be BJP and JD(S) voters than those of the Congress.

Such a lead would be considered phenomenal in any other state and may have triggered an electoral wave, but Karnataka’s regional equation makes the story complicated. What appears to be a triangular contest at the State level is bipolar in many regions. The Congress is present everywhere but the votes of the BJP and JD(S) are concentrated in some regions.

The latest survey shows that it is a direct Congress-BJP contest in Bombay Karnataka (50 seats) and the coastal region (21 seats). The BJP appears to have improved its position in the former, while the Congress has made some gains in the latter.

The biggest gains for the Congress appear to have come from Hyderabad Karnataka (31 seats) where the popularity of the JD(S) has plummeted and Greater Bangalore (36 seats) where the Congress looks to improve upon its good showing in the last elections.

The JD(S) continues to be a force to reckon with in its heartland of southern part of Old Mysore (51 seats) and to a lesser degree in “central Karnataka”, the northern part of Old Mysore (35 seats), though the Congress has taken early lead in both these regions. 

While it is easier to say who stands where in the electoral race, it is much more difficult to say why this is the case. The easy and ready explanations of this lead for the Congress do not work. The performance of the non-Congress governments does not provide an answer.

Comic-tragedy alliance
On the one hand, the Kumaraswamy led JD(S)-BJP government enjoys much better popular rating than the media would have us believe. Ordinary people credit that non-Congress government with improving almost everything, except law and order, controlling corruption and the omnipresent price-rise.

On the other hand, the people do not have much to say about the Congress-led Dharam Singh government.
In a direct face-off, people rate JD(S)-BJP government better not just than the Dharam Singh’s Congress led coalition government but also over the S M Krishna’s Congress government. What, then, has clicked for the Congress?

Two factors seem to be working in favour of the Congress, none of which is of its own making. First, the JD(S)-BJP alliance appears to have led to some disenchantment with the idea of a coalition government. Both the allies, especially the JD(S), appear to have frittered away the goodwill of its record of governance due to its unseemly role in the transfer of power.

People blame the JD(S) much more than its partners in the break-up of both its alliances. Yet the sympathy for the BJP as the victim of the Gowda family tricks does not translate into political support for the party for a large number of voters find that episode irrelevant for their voting decision. 

Second, the possibility of this  poll becoming a Vokkaliga-Lingayat contest for supremacy appears to have triggered a subtle reaction from the bottom of the social pyramid in favour of the Congress. Unlike in north India, the Congress in Karnataka has retained some of its social width and organisational depth.

The survey shows a clear three-way split among the voters from the upper end of the social pyramid: upper castes and the Lingayats favour the BJP more than the Congress, while the JD(S) splits Vokkaliga votes with the Congress. The bottom of the social pyramid — comprising lower OBCs, Dalits, adivasis and Muslims who constitute a silent majority of the electorate — seems to have polarised more than ever before in favour of the Congress, thus giving it a decisive edge. 

The question of stability or the growth story of shining Karnataka holds less attraction for the people than their routine developmental interests, concern about price rise and livelihood and anxiety about the state of farmers.

HIGHLIGHTS
*39 pc of the respondents said they will vote for Congress
*28 pc said their choice is BJP
*20 pc stood by Janata Dal (Secular)
*2 pc backed BSP, throwing water on its spoiler dreams
*More than a third of the respondents said they may change their mind.
*nThe undecided are mostly BJP and JD(S) voters
*It might be a 3-cornered fight at the State level, but it’s bipolar in the regions