The Guardian on Pakistan: Pakistan’s fundamental problem is that it is dominated by a military establishment that combines unrealistic and expensive strategic ambitions in its region with a vice-like hold on the extensive privileges it has built up at home.

The military has been scarcely less powerful during times of civilian rule than when a general has been in charge.

It has switched from direct to indirect rule in response to periodic waves of popular discontent or when civilian politicians proved difficult to manipulate. Those politicians, drawn largely from the landlord class or from religious circles, have themselves often proved to be mediocre and corrupt both in office and in opposition.

This background makes it difficult to be overly optimistic about the negotiations now taking place between representatives of General Pervez Musharraf, president since a coup in 1999, and Benazir Bhutto.

What is in prospect is a bargain under which Musharraf will shed his uniform and Benazir will return from exile, with legal changes enabling Musharraf to seek another term as president and Benazir another term as prime minister. Neither of these would be allowed under the constitution as it now stands. The US and other western governments, worried about Pakistan’s role in the war on terror, are cheering all this on.

A return to civilian rule is in theory to be commended, but how much would then change in Pakistan? Musharraf would still be the military’s point man in the political world and any attempt by Benazir to shrink the vast domain the military and security services control would meet with predictable resistance.

A more coherent and formidable religious opposition could well emerge, perhaps allying itself with the party of Nawaz Sharif, Benazir’s rival, soon expected in Pakistan after a supreme court decision that he no longer be excluded from the country.

If a deal is done between the Musharraf and Bhutto camps, it is by no means certain it will go through. Sharif is vociferously hostile, and could help turn Pakistani public opinion against it. Public opinion is a more weighty factor than it has been in the past.

Musharraf’s attempt six months ago to sack Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the supreme court chief justice, focused in a remarkable way the anger and unease many Pakistanis feel about how their country has been run.

Chaudhry’s resistance in turn led and shaped public opinion. The constitutional changes Musharraf and Benazir require may well end up before a supreme court which is very responsive to popular feeling. In a mood of popular empowerment unusual in Pakistan, it is that feeling which could make or break the political plans of Benazir and Musharraf.