Deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's return to Thailand has evoked a mixed response. While his supporters – mainly the rural poor – have given him a tumultuous welcome, the country’s old elite and sections of the urban middle class as well as the military, which ousted him from power in 2006, are watching his return warily. To the latter, Thaksin’s homecoming – he has been living in exile in Britain since the coup -– is merely the first step towards his return to active politics. Massive street demonstrations opposing his corrupt rule had rocked Thailand in 2006. Exploiting the unrest, the military stepped in and overthrew his government. In December 2007, the People’s Power Party (PPP), a party close to Thaksin ,won the general election. The election was viewed as a referendum on Thaksin. Although the PPP did not win a clear majority, its performance was a slap on the face of the military and a shot in the arm for Thaksin. With a PPP-led coalition government succeeding the military-appointed regime, Thaksin’s return to Thailand was a matter of time.
Thaksin will have to face trial and be cleared of innumerable corruption charges before he can step into the political arena again. If guilty, he could serve up to ten years in jail. Courts yielded meekly to him when he was Prime Minister. There is little reason to believe that the situation is different now. Thaksin will also have to get the five-year ban on political office that was imposed on him last year lifted if he is to assume a political role again. His big advantage lies in his popular appeal and the disarray of his opponents. The generals have egg on their face as the parties they backed scored poorly in the general elections. Some have pointed out that Thailand’s current Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej will not mildly stand aside to make way for Thaksin; there is a chance therefore that Thaksin’s return might not be all that easy. But Samak’s clout in the coalition is nowhere near that of Thaksin. In all likelihood he will yield to pressure.
Thaksin is a polarising figure. His return is likely to spark street protests in the coming weeks and months, especially if there is obvious interference in the corruption trials. Thaksin’s return could plunge Thailand into another spell of uncertainty.
Deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's return to Thailand has evoked a mixed response. While his supporters – mainly the rural poor – have given him a tumultuous welcome, the country’s old elite and sections of the urban middle class as well as the military, which ousted him from power in 2006, are watching his return warily. To the latter, Thaksin’s homecoming – he has been living in exile in Britain since the coup -– is merely the first step towards his return to active politics. Massive street demonstrations opposing his corrupt rule had rocked Thailand in 2006. Exploiting the unrest, the military stepped in and overthrew his government. In December 2007, the People’s Power Party (PPP), a party close to Thaksin ,won the general election. The election was viewed as a referendum on Thaksin. Although the PPP did not win a clear majority, its performance was a slap on the face of the military and a shot in the arm for Thaksin. With a PPP-led coalition government succeeding the military-appointed regime, Thaksin’s return to Thailand was a matter of time. 
