Will change, change anything in China?

The new standing committee is full of Jiang Zemin loyalists, though he retired a decade ago

China’s new leader, Xi Jinping impressed many with a blunt address to the nation, but the team he heads has left many worrying that he will lack the power to carry out his promises.

According to tradition, Xi, 59, appeared on stage the day after the congress accompanied by six other party officials who will form the new Politburo Standing Committee, the elite group that makes crucial decisions on the economy, foreign policy and other major issues.
He then gave a speech on live television that avoided most of the slogans that characterized Hu’s recent talks. In fact, he did not mention Hu or any of his predecessors, instead calling on the party to fight corruption and promising to continue China’s ‘rejuvenation.’

“We have every reason to be proud — proud, but not complacent,” said Xi, looking relaxed in a dark suit and a wine-red tie. “Inside the party, there are many problems that need be addressed, I especially the problems among party members and officials of corruption and taking bribes, being out of touch with the people, undue emphasis on formalities and bureaucracy, and other issues.”

He also pledged to improve ordinary people’s lives, including “better schooling, more stable jobs, more satisfying incomes, more reliable social security, higher levels of health care, more comfortable housing conditions, and a more beautiful environment, and they look forward to their children growing up in better circumstances, finding better work, and living in better conditions. “People’s striving for a better life is the goal we are struggling for.”

Hu, 69, also turned over the post of civilian chairman of the military Xi, which made this transition the first time since the promotion of the ill-fated Hua Guofeng in 1976 that a Chinese leader had taken office as head of the party and the military at the same time. That gives Xi a stronger base from which to consolidate his power, even as he grapples with the continuing influence of party elders.

The unveiling came the day after the weeklong 18th Party Congress ended, with Hu making his final appearance as party chief at a closing ceremony and seven standing committee members stepping down. For a nation of 1.3 billion, the transition -- only the second orderly handover of power in more than six decades of Communist Party rule -- culminates a tumultuous period plagued by scandals and intense political rivalry that presented the party with some of its greatest challenges since the student uprising of 1989.

Xi is known for shunning the spotlight and being a skilled consensus builder. He spent his childhood in the leadership compounds of Beijing but was forced to toil in a village of cave homes in Shaanxi Province for seven years during the Cultural Revolution, when his father was purged.

His first job was as an aide to a top general in Beijing. He then rose through the party ranks in the provinces, including Fujian and Zhejiang, two coastal regions known for private entrepreneur-ship and exchanges with Taiwan. Xi’s jobs and family background have allowed him to build personal ties to some military leaders. He is married to a celebrity singer, Peng Liyuan, and they have a daughter attending Harvard under a pseudonym.

Although Xi’s appointment has been expected since essentially being named Hu’s successor five years ago, it was the first chance for Chinese to see him in action free of Hu’s shadow. One retired county leader in Hebei Province, who served there at the same time as Xi in the early 1980s, noted that Xi did not repeat many of Hu’s slogans.

Root out corruption

“Instead, he stressed the party’s responsibilities to the masses and the heroism of the people, as well as the need to root out corruption in the party,” said the retired official, Li Zhong. “He was very frank and showed his consideration for the people.” His performance was also widely discussed on China’s social media sites, which largely reflect a better educated urban population.

“He speaks with a human touch,” He Bing of the University of Political Science and Law wrote on a microblog. Others were more critical. “I read Xi's speech, he mentioned the word ‘party’ 20 times; ‘people’ appeared 19 times; ‘responsibility’ was said 10 times”' wrote Jian Heng, a guest professor at Shantou University on Weibo. “Didn't use anything related to law. No ‘constitution,’ no ‘rule of law’ nor ‘democracy,’ no ‘freedom.’”

While those sorts of political reforms are unlikely to be on Xi’s agenda, analysts said he might not be able to tackle those that are. Except for Xi's No. 2, Li Keqiang, who is expected to take control of the bureaucratic apparatus of the state as prime minister next spring, the other five members are all in their mid-60s. That means they are all likely to retire at the next party congress in five years. Given the intensely consuming task of negotiating top leadership slots among competing factions, finding suitable replacements for these five could use up much of Xi’s political capital.

Another problem is that the new standing committee, which was trimmed to seven members from nine, reflects the strong hand of Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin. Although he retired a decade ago, the 86 year-old has close ties with at least for of the seven members. That means he was able to override Hu and place his people in top slots even though he has no formal position in the party.

Li, a protege of  Hu’s, is expected to get the state title of prime minister next spring, when Xi becomes president. Li and Xi were the only members on the departing standing committee who are remaining part of the group.

“It is quite a mediocre lineup, and we’ll have to wait and see what they do,” said Pu Zhiqiang, a lawyer based in Beijing who often handles human rights cases. “The way of Chinese politics means that their past performances don’t show what they’ll do in the future.”

Robert Lawrence Kuhn, an American businessman who wrote an authorized biography of Jiang and remains close to senior officials, predicted that Xi would surprise those expecting him to adhere to the status quo. The pressures on China to create a more sustainable economic system — one that relies less on investment in large projects and exports and more on domestic consumption and private business — will compel him to act soon: “The risks of not reforming are now higher than the risks of reforming,” Kuhn said.

With the end of the 18th Party Congress there are now about 20 retired standing committee members, and many of them want a say in major decisions. “The bad news from looking at the political system is that it really seems to have thrown a wrench in our understanding of institutionalisation,” said Joseph Fewsmith, a professor at Boston University who specializes in Chinese politics. “This whole institutional idea that people retire and then don’t play much of a role seems to have been pretty well demolished.”

Xi did keep one tradition, however. Like Hu, who gave almost no interviews to the foreign news media during his 10 years in office, Xi left without taking any questions from the scores of waiting journalists.