Australian Education Minister Simon Crean said "I've heard talk of the imminent collapse of overseas student markets." "Let me just make this point: the last figures I saw showed that enrolments in university-run courses have increased for overseas students [despite the exchange rate and global financial crisis]" he said.
Crean blamed that any decline in enrolments to government intervention aimed at "shonky operators". "We don't want people offering courses, in whatever institution in Australia, as a means by which they're selling [permanent] residency, not quality education," he was quoted as saying by 'The Australian'.
In June, overseas enrolments in higher education were 10.7 per cent up compared with the same month last year. Meanwhile, Opposition Liberal party Leader Tony Abbott had warned overseas student numbers had to be "politically sustainable."
International Education Association of Australia, which complains of damaging, ad-hoc changes to visa rules, has asked the government to stump up a USD 100 million rescue package. Student recruiters in China predict 30-50 per cent falls in enrolments for 2011.
Commencements at English language colleges, which lead students to universities, have plummeted by 20 per cent. English Australia executive director Sue Blundell has warned that commencements could be down 40 per cent by the end of the year.
UNSW Global, which offers English language courses and foundation studies, and feeds overseas students to the University of NSW, made 24 staff redundant last month.
"It's a response to declining market conditions and budgets," UNSW Global chief executive Rob Forage said.
"We're certainly seeing a softening in demand from overseas. The challenge is to really understand how big that is going to be. " In a survey by market researcher TNS, 46 per cent of the 1378 respondents believed overseas students were taking university places from Australians.
"This is truly worrying. It's a blow from another direction," said Chris Nyland, a Monash University expert on overseas student security.
"There's a lot of resentment out in the suburbs about the increased competition for resources, and it's not just university places. " Overseas student fees accounted for 15 per cent of overall university income in 2008 and subsidise the teaching of domestic students.