Centre unlikely to achieve July Covid-19 vaccination target of 51.6 crore doses

So far, 38.5 crore shots have been given, which leaves a gap of more than 13 crore to be filled

The Union Health Ministry is unlikely to meet its target of administering 51.6 crore Covid-19 vaccine doses by July end as it would require bridging a supply gap of more than 13 crore doses in the next 18 days.

While the government had earlier informed the Supreme Court that 51.6 crore doses would be made available for administration by July 31, 38.5 crore shots have been given so far, leaving a gap of more than 13 crore that needs to be filled. Till 7 pm, only 34 lakh doses were administered on Tuesday as the low vaccination trend continued.

Bridging such a huge gap would mean that for nearly three weeks, the government will have to administer more than 70 lakh doses every day, while the average number of jabs being administered at the moment is 40 lakh a day. In fact, for the second successive week, India witnessed a drop in its average daily vaccination number.

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“The drop in vaccination is largely due to non-availability of vaccine supplies. It is rather unfortunate that a global vaccine supplier such as India is struggling to meet its vaccine demand,” said Oommen John, a senior public health researcher at the George Institute for Global Health.

After the Centre changed its vaccination policy so as to procure 75 per cent of the vaccine supplies from manufacturers and distribute them to the states, the vaccination figures rose sharply for a week.

The week starting on June 21 saw an average daily inoculation of 61 lakh doses, including 91 lakh doses been administered on June 21. But the number dropped to 41.8 lakh from June 28 to July 4 and further nosedived to 34.4 lakh doses from July 5-July 12.

Sources said that the Serum Institute of India had manufactured nine crore doses of Covishield and that production would be increased to 10 crore in July and August. But an analysis of the data that the government shared with the apex court suggests that the Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech together supplied at least 30 per cent less than their known production capacities in the first five months of 2021.

Neither Serum Institute nor Bharat Biotech responded to DH's queries on their production capacities, production volume, the roadmap for the next three months and whether they were facing any problems in accessing the raw materials for the jabs.

“The supply dynamics are complicated and are plaguing most nations in the world," said Giridhara Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India. "While making judicious use of available doses for completing the second dose for vulnerable people, strengthening micro-planning and mobilisation will be useful for vaccinating the eligible population in the days ahead when the vaccines become readily available.”