Renowned virologist and former INSACOG chairman Dr Shahid Jameel said that data from a quickly conducted serosurvey could suggest whether and when a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may hit the country.
In an interview with The New Indian Express, Dr Jameel said that there are three major factors that would indicate how severe a third wave, if it arises, would be. The behaviour of people following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, exposure and vaccination against the virus, and the emergence of a more severe variant of the virus would be the determiners for the third wave, he said.
Dr Jameel suggested that a quick serosurvey be conducted to determine what percentage of the population had been exposed to the coronavirus and explained that the situation would vary hugely based on whether 50 per cent of people were exposed to Covid-19 or 70 per cent.
He also said that if a more infectious (than Delta) variant of the virus arises, it may trigger a third wave. Citing a recent example, he noted that the Delta variant, which drove the second wave, was 100 per cent more infectious than the Alpha variant. The Delta Plus variant, he said, was not as infectious.
Speaking on the possibility of children being adversely impacted by a third wave, Dr Jameel told the publication that such predictions were made on the premise that children "have largely been left unexposed." He opined that children were as exposed to the virus as adults.
When asked on the amount of sequencing in India, the virologist said that the strategy adopted mattered more than "brute numbers." He said that while INSACOG's sequencing rate was 0.03 per cent, they still managed to find the emerging Delta Plus variant. He said that the country's scale of sequencing could be enhanced by "utilising the strengths" of private players, whose help the government has not sought so far.
Published 11 July 2021, 06:12 IST