Boeing’s Starliner Failure Leaves NASA More Reliant on SpaceX, Musk

By Bruce Einhorn

A mission that would have reduced US government reliance on Elon Musk’s SpaceX is ending with NASA turning to it for help, highlighting the influence the billionaire and his closely held company have over America’s ambitions in outer space.

For years, SpaceX has offered the only rides for people to and from the International Space Station aboard US rockets.

Musk’s company also is the world’s leading provider of satellite launches and his Starlink network the top operator of internet services from low-Earth orbit.

To give itself more options, NASA wanted to use Starliner, a new spacecraft from Boeing Co., for trips to the ISS. Astronauts Sunita “Suni” Williams and Barry “Butch” Wilmore became the first to travel on Starliner in early June, for what was supposed to be a visit of about one week.

They’re still there.

Numerous technical glitches with the space capsule forced NASA on Aug. 24 to announce the two will be forced to return on a previously scheduled February flight aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon. The move is a major blow to Boeing’s space business, and a sign of just how reliant NASA has become on Musk’s company for critical space operations.

“NASA always wanted to have more than one option” but that hasn’t worked out so far, said Carter Palmer, lead analyst for space systems at Forecast International, a Sandy Hook, Connecticut-based aerospace and defense market research firm.

The US space agency hasn’t given up on Starliner. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told reporters he’s certain Starliner would launch with crews again.

Launch Disparity

Even before the Starliner crisis, SpaceX’s dominant position in the US space ecosystem has attracted notice, especially among critics of Musk.

SpaceX has launched more than 80 missions of its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets this year, including several for the US government, compared with just four for rivals United Launch Alliance and 10 for Rocket Lab USA Inc. Musk’s space company completed 96 launches for all of 2023.

The market for placing large geostationary satellites into orbit is a “temporary de facto monopoly,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davies. He wrote in a July 17 research note that “only SpaceX made commercial launches in 2023, though three rivals were successful in 2022,” including ULA and Europe’s Arianespace.

SpaceX also has a huge head start over rivals when it comes to smaller, low-Earth satellite launches. Its Starlink space-based internet service boasts more than 6,000 communications satellites already in operation. Amazon.com Inc. has plans to build a rival network, Project Kuiper, but so far has just launched two test satellites.

Starlink’s global reach has extended onto the battlefield, including unauthorized user access in zones subject to US sanctions.

Ukraine has relied on Starlink to provide critical communications services during its war against Russia, and Musk last year alarmed many of his critics after saying he denied a request by Kyiv to use the network for an attack on Russian targets near the coast of occupied Crimea. Earlier this year, Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian forces were using Starlink terminals on the front lines, though SpaceX has since taken steps to work with US government officials to limit illicit use by Russia.

“The potential influence exerted by Mr Musk over US foreign policy and recent comments that appear to indicate an indifference to US national security concerns raises questions,” Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote in a letter to the US Department of Defense in May.

“This problem is exacerbated not just by Mr Musk’s personal wealth, but by the fact that SpaceX appears to have monopoly power over satellite internet access and space payload delivery and passenger travel — a troubling national security problem,” she wrote.

Space Force Contract

SpaceX has a growing portfolio of business deals with the Pentagon. Last September, the company won its first contract from the US Space Force to provide customized satellite communications for the military.

The Defense Department has rebuffed concerns it’s too reliant on SpaceX, with one senior official saying the company provides the government with valuable services but also noting the government expects more competition to develop later this decade.

Another US company capable of flying to the ISS is Northrop Grumman Corp., but its Cygnus space freighter operates uncrewed cargo missions, with the most recent arrival at the space station taking place on August 6.

Because it has flown so many more missions than any rival, SpaceX is far ahead of the pack in creating reliable and safe vehicles, said Jonathan Clark, clinical professor at Baylor College of Medicine’s Center for Space Medicine whose experience with NASA included serving as crew surgeon for six missions of the Space Shuttle.

“The most reliable spacecraft out there is the Crew Dragon,” he said. “It’s all about getting experience and having a robust, proven system — and right now that’s Crew Dragon.”

Musk’s growing leverage in space comes as he has raised eyebrows by wading into political issues.

The SpaceX and Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has endorsed former President Donald Trump’s reelection bid and called Vice President Kamala Harris, who is chair of the National Space Council and Trump’s chief US presidential race rival, “quite literally a communist” in an Aug 7 post on his social media platform X.

He also stoked criticism this year for ridiculing the policies of US allies such as the Australia and the UK.

Some US astronauts can still travel to the ISS aboard Russian rockets, since the space station is one of the last places where Washington and Moscow are cooperating following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

NASA’s Donald Pettit is scheduled to fly with two cosmonauts on Russia’s Soyuz MS-26 spacecraft in September. But NASA doesn’t want to become dependent on Russia, which the US government views as a strategic threat in space.