Exit polls predict landslide victory for BJP in Gujarat, tough contest in Himachal Pradesh

Most exit polls predicted a big mandate for the BJP in Gujarat in the range of 117-148 seats in the 182-member Assembly

BJP is likely to win Gujarat with two-third majority but will have to sweat it out in Himachal Pradesh while the AAP is certain to unseat the saffron party from the Municipal Corporation of Delhi after 15 years bagging almost double the seats than its opponent, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Monday.

Congress may lose seats this time in Gujarat compared to the 2017 poll but it is giving a tough fight to the BJP in Himachal Pradesh. However, Delhi is a huge disappointment for the Congress as exit polls predicted that it is reaching the final destination of political irrelevance in the national capital.
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AAP also is likely to have a dismal show in both Gujarat where it went on a high octane campaign and Himachal Pradesh.

Ten exit polls analysed by DH showed that the BJP is predicted to win between a minimum of 110 seats to a maximum of 161 seats in a House of 182 in Gujarat. Congress is predicted to win 11 to 61 seats while AAP may win two to 22 seats by various polls.

The maximum for the BJP is predicted by the NewsX-Today’s Chanakya poll giving 150 (+/-11) seats, which will be the record tally for a party in Gujarat after Madhavsinh Solanki-led Congress won 149 seats in 1985.

The Today’s Chanakya poll gave Congress 19 (+/-9) and AAP 2 (+/-2), which is the lowest for both the parties. The lowest for the BJP was given by Zee News-BARC (110-125) and India TV-Matrize (112-121) while giving Congress 51-61 and 45-60 respectively. Both the polls did not give much to AAP (1-7 and 1-5 respectively).

According to India Today-My Axis poll, the BJP is likely to win 121-151 seats in Gujarat while Republic-PMarq predicted 128-148 and ABP-CVoter 128-140. TV9 gave 125-130 to BJP while Times Now-ETG gave 131.

The Congress is predicted to win 16-30 seats by India Today-My Axis while Republic-PMarq gives 30-42 seats for Congress and ABP-CVoter 31-43. AAP is likely to win 9-21, 2-10 and 3-11 seats respectively.

Different exit polls predicted around 49-50per cent vote share, retaining what it won in 2017, for the BJP while Congress may see a drop to 32per cent from 41per cent. The AAP is predicted to get 15-20per cent votes by some polls.

In Himachal, the exit polls showed a tough fight for the BJP to retain power though almost all of them gave it an edge except India Today-My Axis, which gave Congress 30-40 seats against BJP’s 28-33. News24-Today’s Chanakya predicted a hung assembly giving both Congress and BJP 33 (+/-7) seats. The halfway mark is 35 in a House of 68.

AAP, which was not aggressive as it was in Gujarat, is unlikely to open its account but if lucky, it may end up with one or two seats, the exit polls showed. Republic-PMarq exit poll gave BJP 34-39 while Congress was close by with 28-33 while ABP-CVoter gave BJP 33-41 and Congress 24-32 seats.

The BJP may get a vote share of 44-45per cent while Congress is likely to get 41-43per cent and AAP 2-3per cent.

In the Delhi municipal elections, AAP is the sure winner, according to four exit polls. In the 250 councillor Municipal Corporation of Delhi, AAP is predicted to win 134-175 seats while the ruling BJP may win 69-94 seats. Congress, which ruled the MCD before 2008, could win 3-14 seats.

The NewsX-Jann Ki Baat exit polls gave AAP the highest at 159-175 while the BJP is predicted to get 70-92. India Today-My Axis gave AAP 149-171 and BJP 69-91 while Times Now-ETG gave 146-156 to AAP and 84-94 to BJP. The Zee News-BARC poll gave AAP 134-146 and BJP 82-94.