National targets remain same a year after historic deal on tripling renewables by 2030: Report

New Delhi: A year after countries agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030, a new report on Tuesday revealed that national targets still only aim for a collective doubling of capacity in the next six years.

The report by global energy think tank Ember showed only eight countries have updated their renewable targets in the last 12 months, resulting in just a four-GW increase in overall renewable energy targets globally.

The report analysed national 2030 renewable capacity targets for 96 countries and the EU as a bloc.

These countries collectively account for 96 per cent of the world’s renewable capacity, 95 per cent of global electricity sector demand and 94 per cent of global power sector emissions. Of the 96 countries, 83 have renewable capacity targets for 2030.

At the UN’s climate conference in December 2023 in Dubai, world leaders reached a historic agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) both show that a global tripling of renewables to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 is the optimal pathway to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

"A year after the global goal to triple renewables was reached at COP28, the collective sum of national targets has only increased by 4 GW. The current sum of 2030 national targets from 96 countries and one region is 7,242 GW, up from 7,238 GW at the end of 2023," Ember said.

This is a doubling of 2022 capacity, which was 3,379 GW, leaving a gap of 3,758 GW to achieve a global tripling, it said.

A regional analysis shows that all regions are falling short of the required ambition needed for a global tripling, considering each region’s starting point and the fact that some need to contribute more than others based on 1.5 degrees Celsius-aligned scenarios, the report said.

Ember said solar deployment continues to exceed predictions with 593 GW expected to be installed in 2024 which is 29 per cent higher than last year, while 2023 saw an 87 per cent increase compared to 2022.

Solar capacity is estimated to reach 6,640 GW by 2030, more than the 6,101 GW required to align with a global tripling. The current sum of 2030 national targets is only 3,011 GW, well below what the market predicts as possible.

Forecasts suggest that global wind capacity in 2030 will reach around 2,100 GW, similar to the sum of present national targets, but less than the wind capacity needed to align with the global tripling goal.

“Renewables markets have moved, but governments’ ambitions have not. The growth of renewables is exceeding expectations every year and this is combined with falling prices,” said Katye Altieri, Electricity Analyst at Ember.

“Markets are booming but there’s still a lack of ambition from countries,” she said.

Ember’s analysis finds that major regions of the world including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, Latin America and Asia have a large gap between their overall regional targets and what is needed to meet the 2030 tripling goal.

While countries pledged to triple global renewable capacity at COP28, the presidency of the upcoming COP29 has set out a vision for a global goal to increase energy storage capacity six times above 2022 levels, reaching 1,500 GW by 2030, which was supported by the G7 earlier this year.

The report finds that only 30 of the 96 countries assessed have some form of national storage target.

Their collective sum of 2030 storage targets total 284 GW, falling short of the 1,500 GW global storage target for 2030.

Ember said the pace of the market, falling prices and increased technological efficiency of renewables should give governments confidence to increase their ambitions and update their targets.

The UN climate conference in Azerbaijan's Baku (COP29) and the upcoming 2025 update of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) present an ideal opportunity to close the gap between where national targets are, and what is needed to meet or exceed a global tripling goal, it said.