Mamata's uncertain fight against Modi-Shah might

Mamata Banerjee had a meteoric rise in the political sky of Bengal. Then she turned into a star, and then a superstar when she derailed the Left Front juggernaut 10 years ago. But at this moment, her political future hangs in balance. If she emerges a winner in the Assembly polls, she will turn into the brightest star in the political space of the Opposition. If she loses, she may run the risk of hitting a dead end.

Politicians take polls in their stride. When they win, they bask in the glory of power. When they lose, the wait for the next election keeps them going. But things are not so easy for Mamata Banerjee. The firebrand 29-year-old who defeated Somnath Chatterjee from Jadavpur Lok Sabha constituency in 1984 not only runs a government now but is also the supremo of a regional party called the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which she established in 1997. The party may crumble and many of her lieutenants may desert her if the TMC loses this time. And it will be extremely difficult for her to rebuild the party.

First things first. What if Didi manages to scrape through this time? What if she gets a majority, or leads a minority government with the support of parties like the Congress and/or ISF (Indian Secular Front, a new entrant in politics led by Abbas Siddique, a cleric of Furfura Sharif)?

If she secures a majority, Mamata will be the first leader to withstand the onslaught of BJP’s heaviest might. True, Arvind Kejriwal and Naveen Patnaik have achieved similar feats earlier. But Delhi is a half-state where the BJP is going strong for decades. Having experienced both Congress and BJP rules in the state and at the Centre, the people there have turned wise enough to choose the BJP for the Centre and the AAP for the state. As far as Naveen babu’s unscathed journey as a chief minister for 21 years is concerned, he had not confronted a challenge like what Didi is facing from Narendra Modi-Amit Shah now.

Under these circumstances, it will be a record of sorts for Didi if she gets a simple majority or even forms a government with the support of others. She will prove that there is someone — more significantly, a woman — who can defeat the might of Modi-Shah even after ruling the state for 10 years and confronting the Modi government on almost every single issue of governance. Unlike Mamata, Naveen Patnaik has not confronted Modi either on developmental issues or on contentious topics like the CAA or NRC (he opposed these moves, but mildly).

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Didi has become Modi-Shah’s eyesore because of her confrontationalist attitude borrowed from the Left that ruled Bengal for 34 years prior to her. Whether it was demonetisation or NRC-CAA, she had led from the front. She acted as the leading light of Opposition politics, and Rahul Gandhi and a few others merely followed her. She has fought Modi as a chief minister the way she fought the Left for two decades. Hence, if she retains power this time, she will be the uncrowned ‘emperor’ of the Opposition force, and perhaps its face for 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Mamata will not lose this position even if the BJP dislodges her (in case she gets a narrow majority or leads a minority government) after a year or two. She will still be the first among equals in the Opposition camp thanks to her high spirits and fighting skills.

Now, what if she loses? Well, Mamata Banerjee, 66, has age on her side. She can take on the BJP five or, if need be, 10 years later. A lot of politicians in the past have lost power and regained it. Ashok Gehlot of Rajasthan was defeated in 2013 at the age of 62. He came up trumps five years later. In fact, he had lost power earlier in 2003 and won it back in 2008 too.

So, what sets apart Mamata Banerjee? Firstly, she does not belong to a national party like Gehlot, nor has she inherited a well-structured regional party like Chandrababu Naidu. More importantly, unlike Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad or Mayawati, Mamata hasn't got the benefit of a ready vote bank. Mulayam and Lalu also deserted a national party and launched their own outfits like Mamata, but they were rightful inheritors of the Socialist vote bank, mainly that of OBCs. Mayawati inherited the dalit vote bank from Kanshi Ram. Unlike them, Didi has no fixed set of political assets to fall back upon.

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Secondly, Mamata or her party has no fixed ideological mooring. She joined hands with the BJP just six years after the demolition of the Babri mosque. At that moment, Muslims in Bengal were either with the Congress or the Left, and she did not care for their reaction. But the party built by Lal Krishna Advani, after it came out from the Janata Party, did not have much sway over the Bengali mind. Later, Mamata left the NDA and joined hands with the Congress. 'Secular' and 'saffron' were just two alternatives she exploited in her efforts to defeat the Left. When the Left started losing the trust of Muslims, she gained their support and assumed power. Since then, Mamata has fashioned herself as a secular icon, mainly to retain the support of Muslims, who form 30% of the voters in Bengal.

It will be extremely difficult for Mamata to overcome her two shortcomings — organisational and ideological — if she loses. The only ideology she followed, if it can be called one, is anti-CPI(M)ism. To defeat the Left, she turned into an alternative Left. She assumed the colour that suited her at a particular time. Hence, unlike an ideology-based party like the Left or the BJP, Mamata's party has no cohesiveness to carry the cadres at worst times.

Perhaps this is the reason why she came up with a provincial agenda, by evoking Bengali pride and dubbing non-Bengalis ‘outsiders’. Again, Bengal — the land from where India learnt nationalism through Bankim Chandra Chatterjee, Rabindranath Tagore and Swami Vivekananda — is unlikely to take up provincialism as an ideology. If the TMC is defeated this time, it will also mean the end of parochial thoughts. It is unlikely to give further oxygen to Didi or the TMC.

To be honest, if there is strong anti-incumbency this time, it will not entirely be an expression of dissatisfaction against the chief minister. Among those who are voting against the TMC, a sizeable section lauds the social welfare schemes launched by Didi. Their ire is directed against TMC MPs, MLAs and local leaders, many of whom have been accused of corruption and amoral behaviour. Ironically, Mamata cannot expect these leaders to stay with her if she loses. The grapevine has it that if she loses, a large number of party MPs may join the BJP.

If thrown out of power, it will be an uphill task for Didi to retain her organisational network, and live to fight another day.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of the recently published detective novel ‘Mirchi Memsaab’s House of Faith’)