2022 Gujarat poll likely to be 'toughest' election for Congress

The Congress strongholds of north Gujarat and some tribal region have also been breached as many of its strong leaders have crossed over to the BJP in the last 5 years

The forthcoming Gujarat Assembly polls are likely to be one of the toughest for the opposition Congress as it is facing a dual challenge - of defeating the ruling BJP in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and protecting its base from parties like the AAP and AIMIM, which are also trying to make inroads into the state, say political experts.

However, a state Congress spokesperson claimed people will vote for their party, in the Gujarat elections due later this year, as they are fed up of the BJP's "misrule" for over two decades. But, political observers feel the Congress is plagued by a dearth of strong local leaders, infighting and depleting work force in the state.

“This will be one of the toughest election for the Congress in Gujarat," Rajkot-based political observer Suresh Samani told PTI, noting the party has not won the state Assembly polls since 1995.

In 2017, the Congress won 77 seats in the 182-member Assembly, and a high vote share, largely due to rural distress, he said. The BJP had won 99 seats in the Assembly in the last election. "The farming community was not happy as it was not getting a good price for crop produce.

In the last five years, the BJP government in the state purchased every farm produce, including commercial crops like groundnut, by paying a reasonably good return as the Minimum Support Price (MSP). The rural population now has nothing to complain about,” Samani said.

Also, the urban middle class and higher middle class voters have stood firmly behind the BJP due to various reasons, including Hindutva, despite the rising inflation, he said. "So, the Congress's plan to make inroads into the state's urban areas is not likely to make much headway,” he said.

Read | Congress not to let Gujarat polls turn into 'Modi vs Cong' tussle, plans campaign against BJP's local leadership

The Congress strongholds of north Gujarat and some tribal region have also been breached as many of its strong leaders have crossed over to the BJP in the last five years. "The Congress has a problem of depleting party work force and infighting, among others issues,” he said.

The other challenge before the Congress is contenders like the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Asaduddin Owaisi headed All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which are also "vying for a pie of the traditional Congress vote bank," he said.

AAP convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal, during his recent campaign rallies in Gujarat, targeted the Congress by appealing to voters not to waste their votes on the opposition party, claiming it cannot defeat the BJP. The AAP is eyeing to cut into the Congress's vote share to challenge the BJP, as it had done in Delhi. The Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chotu Vasava has also announced an alliance with the AAP to give a fight to the Congress for tribal votes.

AIMIM chief Owaisi recently visited some Muslim-dominated constituencies in Ahmedabad, Vadgam in north Gujarat and Kutch with an aim to woo the minority community. His party is aiming to open its account in the state Assembly in constituencies where the Muslim population is comparatively higher than other communities.

Another political observer Hari Desai said the Congress can give the BJP a tough fight if it sticks to cater to the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi (tribal) and Muslim) vote bank and gets votes of disgruntled Patel community members. The KHAM combination of castes and communities was devised as a winning formula by former Gujarat chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki.

“Parties like the AAP and the BTP can grab votes of the BJP and harm the ruling party equally, and not just the Congress,” Desai said. He also said that the AIMIM is likely to cut the Congress's votes in the state. However, Gujarat Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi claimed the people of Gujarat were fed up of the "arrogance and misrule" of the BJP for over two decades and that it will reflect in the 2022 Assembly elections as they will vote out the ruling party. “The Congress has formed a strategy, and the party's central leadership is observing everything minutely and directing us on how to go about the polls.

We have decided to make this election a fight against Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel and BJP state unit president C R Paatil,” Doshi said. The Congress does not want the state election to be a fight between PM Narendra Modi and the opposition party, he added. On the AAP and other parties also gearing up to contest the Gujarat polls, Congress national spokesperson Shaktisinh Gohil said a third party has never succeeded in the state. “Since its formation, Gujarat has seen contests only between the Congress and the BJP and it will remain so. The AAP will not be able to cut ice with the people of Gujarat,” he claimed.