4.5 lakh children and adolescents in Andhra Pradesh may be affected in Covid-19 third wave, says a panel

Of the total cases reported in the first and second waves in the State, 2.72 per cent were children in the 0-9 age group

Andhra Pradesh could witness about 18 lakh Covid-19 cases in the third wave, out of which 4.5 lakh i.e., 25 per cent would be children and adolescents, according to the projections of a state panel.

The estimation of 18 lakh cases is equivalent to the total number of cases recorded till now in the state during the first and second wave of the pandemic. Also, under 18 years formed only about 12 per cent of the total cases of the first two waves in Andhra Pradesh, similar to the corresponding figures nationally.

In its report submitted to the Jaganmohan Reddy government, the Paediatric Covid-19 Task Force Committee said that 90 per cent of the 4.5 lakh under 18 years age cases would be of home isolation category, and mild symptoms.

“Eight per cent (about 36,000) children would need hospital admission and two per cent (9000) cases could turn severe, requiring ICU care,” the committee said in its report accessed by DH.

“Paediatric age groups were largely spared during the first and second wave, but the third wave could show a growth in the children cases. This is apparent since the infections among the adults would be less due to acquired and vaccine-related immunity,” the committee observed. “However, we do not anticipate any escalation in their illness severity.”

SPECIAL CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE ONLY ON DH

The present inoculation drive is covering people of 18 years of age and above. Covid-19 vaccines like Covaxin are still under trials for children use.

Speaking to DH, Dr Bhumireddy Chandrasekhar Reddy, chairperson of the committee, said that their estimates are based on trends and experiences from the two waves and “not any predictive model or scientific analysis.”

“Our projections are meant to alert the government and prepare the healthcare infrastructure for a possible, worst-case scenario. We have kept the numbers on the larger side, considering factors like the emergence of new variants,” Dr Reddy, who is the chairman of the AP Medical Services and Infrastructure Development Corporation, said.

“The third wave is a reality we should be prepared for, though we do not know when it will occur. Children getting affected more is also an assumption, but has to be taken seriously.”

Estimating that 75 per cent of the overall cases would come to the state-run facilities, the committee has asked the government to strengthen pediatric care and equip the hospitals in advance with all necessary medicines and equipment.

“We need to be prepared for treating 45,000 children over a 5-6 month period, with peak of the cases expected during the 2nd or 3rd months from the third wave beginning,” the committee said, adding that 533 children could be admitted into hospitals daily during the two peak months.

The committee wants 700 pediatric and neonatal ventilators installed in 15 government hospitals, among an exhaustive list of equipment like patient monitors, pulse oximeters, portable X-ray machines, pediatric size nasal cannulas and stock of antipyretics, anti-coagulants, antimicrobial drugs, steroids.