AAP to emerge as single largest party in Punjab Assembly polls: Opinion poll

Punjab is likely to witness a hung Assembly, with AAP emerging as the single largest party in the state in the 2022 state polls, as per the ABP-CVoter-IANS opinion poll.

The battle for the throne of Punjab is between INC and AAP. Erstwhile NDA composed of BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal is no more in contention for power in 2022.

Incumbent Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh is facing strong anti-incumbency. In the latest round of opinion poll conducted in the state, while 64.8% of the respondents said they were dissatisfied with the performance of the sitting chief minister, only 12.6% of those interviewed stated that they were very much satisfied and 19.0 said they were satisfied to some extent with his performance.

A strong anti-incumbency sentiment is prevalent not only against the sitting Chief Minister but with the overall Congress government in the state as 60.8% of the respondents expressed strong dissatisfaction with the performance of the state government.

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Similarly, majority of the respondents - 51% expressed dissatisfaction with the sitting MLAs of their constituencies. This anti-incumbency sentiment combined with non-ending feud between Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and PCC chief Navjyot Singh Sidhu has created an opening for the AAP to rise as the main challenger.

As things stand today, while Congress is projected to win a 28.8% vote share in Punjab, AAP is projected to grab 35.1% votes, SAD is projected to secure 21.8% votes and BJP is projected to win 7.3 % vote share which if translated into seats there is a possibility of a hung house in Punjab Assembly 2022.

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AAP could be the single largest party as the party is projected to grab 51 to 57 seats. Congress may finish a strong second by winning 38 to 46 seats, SADl is likely to grab 16 to 24 seats and BJP may notch 0 to 1 seats.

The total strength of the Punjab Assembly is 117 seats. The strong anti-incumbency against sitting Chief Minister Amarinder Singh is also reflected in the fact that only 17.9% of the respondents consider him as the most preferred choice for the post of the chief minister.

The survey revealed that AAP does not have a credible face from Punjab, who can be projected as chief minister face of the party. While 21.6% of the respondents said that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is their preferred choice to be the next chief minister of the state, only 16.1% consider Bhagwant Mann, AAP's face in Punjab as the preferred choice for the top job in the state. 18.8% stated that Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Badal was their most preferred choice for the post of the chief minister.

According to the survey data, price rise and farmers' issues are key issues of concern for the electorate of the state.33.5% of the respondents said that spiralling price rise was a major issue of concern, 28.6% of those interviewed during the survey stated that issues related to agriculture/farmers was their top concern.

The sample for the poll is 81006 in five states covering 690 assembly seats. This State Poll is part of the largest and definitive independent sample survey tracker series carried out in India over the last 22 years, conducted by independent international polling agency CVoter, a globally renowned name in the field of Socio-Economic research.

May 2009 onwards, the CVoter Tracker has been carried out each and every week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all States in UTs in India, with a target sample size of 3000 samples each wave. The average response rate is 55%. Starting 1st January 2019, C Voter is carrying the tracker on a daily basis, using the rollover sample of 7 days (last 6 days + today) for tracker analysis.