Covid-19 second wave not seen in most Indian states, but hotspots are yet to lower their guards fearing surge

India is yet to encounter the second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic but hotspots like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala have not lowered their guards anticipating the return of such a wave in January-February, 2021.

Karnataka’s Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee expects a second spike in Covid-19 cases in January or February based on the disease progression in other states. The positivity rate for Karnataka is 7.6% higher than the country's average of 6.1%.

India and France are among some of the world’s most Covid-19 affected nations that are yet to witness a second surge in the number of infections as witnessed by the USA, Russia, UK, Spain, Brazil and Turkey.

Based on the global experience that shows the occurrence of a second wave three to four months after the first wave, Karnataka apprehends a second spike in January- February 2021.

The IT-BT state is not alone in such an assessment. The Maharashtra government is also expecting the second wave in January-February, 2021. With the rise in cases in Europe, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray warned people of a second possible wave which he referred to a tsunami.

On September 11, Maharashtra recorded its peak of 24,886 cases and four days later maximum deaths of 515 in a day was reported. This happened nearly a month after the Ganesh Utsav. But a month down the line, there was an improvement of the situation between Navratri and Diwali with positive cases dipping to 2,535 in a single day on November 16.

The state’s Pune-based Directorate of Health Services issued a circular on November 11 warning of a second wave, but the situation remained somewhat stabilised since then. “If there is another corona wave in Maharashtra, it will cost everyone dearly,’’ said Maharashtra public health and family welfare minister Rajesh Tope said.

Kerala too fears a second wave in the coming months after the local body elections while officials in Gujarat are of the opinion that the second wave has already passed.

In Gujarat, the post-Diwali period saw a surge in Covid-19 cases forcing the government to impose complete curfew in Ahmedabad city, the worst affected, for two days while night curfew in all four major cities. "We believe the so-called second wave of infection was caused mainly due to relaxation extended to commercial units in view of Diwali festivities when people violated mask rules and social distancing,” said a senior Gujarat health official.

The eastern states, on the other hand, have no such concerns. The Covid-19 situation is no more alarming in Bihar, which witnessed the first assembly election amidst the pandemic followed by Chhath festival in November, where large numbers of people congregate on the banks of the rivers. Both events passed over with relatively fewer casualties.

Little wonder, Bihar’s Home Department this week revised its guidelines and allowed 200 persons (from the earlier limit of 150 persons) to attend any marriage function in the State.

Neighbouring West Bengal’s Director of Health Services Ajay Chakraborty told DH, “The second wave arrived in the state when migrant workers returned (in June-July). The second wave is already in decline and almost over.”

Northern states like Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan experienced a second spike (third in case of Delhi) in positive cases. But the numbers were never too high to trigger any nation-wide alarm.

On other hand, no surge is visible in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana as well as in the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir where Covid-19 numbers are steadily going down.

(With inputs from P Suraksha, Satish Jha, Prasad Nichenametla, ETB Sivapriyan, Arjun Raghunath, Abhay Kumar, Soumya Das, Sumir Karmakar, Mrityunjay Bose and Zulfikar Majid)