Crossing 272: Tough task for BJP, opinion polls suggest

An opinion poll conducted in the first week of March has claimed that BJP-led NDA may hold on to power for one more term with a slender margin though Congress and some other Opposition parties are likely to improve their tally while another predicted it may fall short of a majority by eight seats.

The India TV-CNX survey telecast on Sunday evening soon after the Election Commission announced the schedule for the Lok Sabha elections claimed that the NDA could get 285 seats this time, just 13 seats more than the half-way mark of 272, while the Congress-led UPA will have to settle with 126 seats. NDA had won 336 seats in the 2014 polls. Other parties like Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, BSP and TRS are predicted to win 132 seats.

However, the ABP News-CVoter survey claimed that the NDA may have to settle at 264 while the UPA get 141 seats and others 138.

BJP's tally may fall to 238 from 282 it won last time as per India TV-CNX while the ABP News-CVoter kept the seats at 220. The saffron party's present figure is 269 as it lost a series of bypolls in the past five years.

However, both the surveys projected that Congress will not cross the 100-mark this time too. The India TV-CNX gave 82 to Congress, as against 44 it won last time, while the other gave 86. At present, Congress has 45 seats.

According to the India TV-CNX survey, the BJP is projected to make a clean sweep of all seats in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Delhi post the air strikes in Pakistan's Balakot. If one goes by this, the triangular fight may help the saffron party in Delhi where Congress and AAP are yet to reach on a settlement on whether to join hands in the Lok Sabha polls.

In Karnataka, the survey gives 13 seats each to Congress and BJP and the rest two to JD(S). The survey predicted that in Uttar Pradesh, SP-BSP alliance may not have an impact as predicted earlier.

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The India TV poll has predicted that the BJP may still win 40 seats though down from 71 it won last time. BSP and SP are likely to win 16 and respectively 18. At present, BSP has no Lok Sabha MP while SP has five. Congress is likely to double its seat in UP. However, the ABP News prediction gave a different picture saying SP-BSP is set to win 47 seats while BJP will have to satisfy with 29 MPs.

Bihar, another laboratory of United Opposition, may also not bring news to anti-BJP camp as BJP-JD(U)-LJP camp is slated to win 30 seats leaving eight seats to RJD and two it's ally Congress, according to India TV-CNX.

While Congress has done impressively in Assembly polls, the India TV-CNX Rajasthan may be a dampener for Congress as it is predicted to win only five out of 25 seats with the rest going to BJP, which had won all constituencies last time. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, BJP is likely to win 23 seats leaving just six for Congress.

In West Bengal, it said, Congress and CPI(M) are unlikely to open an account this time while BJP is slated to do an impressive show with 12 seats and Trinamool Congress settling with the rest 30.

Odisha is another state where BJP may gain as it is projected to win seven seats leaving the rest 14 to Naveen Patnaik-led BJD. Maharashtra is likely to see BJP winning 22 and its ally Shiv Sena 10 while Congress and NCP are projected to win nine and seven seats respectively.

In Punjab, Congress is likely to win nine seats and Akali Dal three and AAP one but BJP is unlikely to win a seat. However, in neighbouring Haryana, Congress again face a rout winning just one seat while leaving the rest nine to BJP. INLD, which suffered a split, will not win any seat, according to the India TV-CNX survey.

DMK is predicted to win 16 seats in Tamil Nadu where its ally is likely to grab five seats. BJP may get one seat while its partner AIADMK may get 12. In Andhra Pradesh, which is going for Assembly polls too, the news is not good for TDP as it is predicted to win just three seats while its arch-rival YSR Congress is likely to win 22 seats.

In Telangana, TRS is likely to win 14 seats while Congress may win two and AIMIM one.

State-wise break up of seats prediction: (Source: India TV-CNX)

Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25. Assam: BJP 8, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Total 14. Chhattisgarh: BJP 6, Congress 5, Total 11. Gujarat: BJP 26, Congress 0. Total 26. Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0, Total 2. Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10. Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 3, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1. Total 14. Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4. Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6. Karnataka: BJP 13, Congress 13, JD(S) 2, Total 28. Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1, Total 20. Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48. Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29. Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 7, Total 21. Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1, BJP 0, Total 13. Rajasthan: BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25. Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80. Uttarakhand: BJP 5. Total 5. Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39. Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17. West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 30, BJP 12, Total 42. Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11. Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6. Delhi: BJP 7, Congress 0, AAP 0. Total 7.