Fear of irrelevance amidst Covid-19 may prompt terrorist groups to launch attacks: UN report

Terrorists groups are using the Covid-19 pandemic to advance propaganda and fundraising, a UN report has said warning that the "fear of irrelevance" with terrorism going out of the news cycle could lead to outfits planning attacks once restrictions are eased.

Should the pandemic lead to a severe global recession, it said the international community "may be faced with further headwinds" in countering terrorism and extremist narratives.

With the Islamic State managing to have a "captive audience" during the lockdown in several countries and if it has "successfully" used it for planning and recruitment, the report said that the easing of restrictions on movement could witness a spike in attacks in non-conflict zones.

Also, it said, the "fear of irrelevance" with the Covid-19 largely eclipsing terrorism from news cycle could also add to the terrorist outfits' desperation to launch attacks.

The 26th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning ISIS, al-Qaeda and associated entities has said that the impact of the pandemic has varied between conflict zones and non-conflict zones. It said the terrorists are taking advantage of the situation that the attention of security forces is diverted elsewhere, a United Nations (UN) report has said.

The report noted that authorities cannot impose meaningful restrictions in conflict zones for public health reasons and in general, the short-term terrorist threat has risen in conflict zones and fallen in non-conflict zones.

"Where access to health care is limited, especially in conflict zones, the feeling of vulnerability may fuel extremism, as may economic distress caused by the pandemic. Even where the short-term threat is lower, the long-term impact of Covid-19 may increase it," the report said.

On Sunday, DH said, quoting the report, that there is a “significant number” of ISIS terrorists in Kerala and Karnataka, noting that the al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent terror group — which reportedly has between 150 and 200 militants from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar — is planning attacks in the region.

According to the report, the Islamic State's (IS) propaganda and media output have been "largely unaffected" by Covid-19. It has called for attacks on its "enemies while they are weakened and distracted" while presenting the pandemic as a "divine punishment of the West and a cause for celebration".

The IS has also recognised that the virus could be "weaponised" but no countries have reported that there was no attempts to do so. The UN report said that there have been no indications that the IS is "systematically attempting" to weaponise" the virus.

"The Monitoring Team has seen reports of some preliminary thinking along these lines and other terrorist groups have looked at the option more seriously, which may itself prompt IS and/or Al-Qaida to do so because terrorists take an interest in each other’s propaganda and tactics. This is a potential threat that needs to be kept under review." the report, however, warned.

Analysing the situation, the report said the Covid-19 curfews and restrictions in countries have limited movement of people and could lead to disruption in terrorist planning.

"Restrictions on international travel significantly constrain terrorist mobility, networking and finance related activity. The same restrictions have reduced the number of potential targets available globally. Travel to tourist destinations has dried up and tourists already abroad have been repatriated. With public gatherings discouraged and venues closed, there are few targets available to terrorists looking to undertake IS-inspired attacks,” it said.

“This highlights the operational limitations of IS since it gave up its external operational capability. Member States believe that the group has increased the urgency with which it is seeking to reconstitute that capability, although there is no evidence that it has succeeded as yet," it added.