Has third Covid-19 wave peaked? Experts are not so sure

Even as cases dipped in Delhi and Mumbai, experts said that different regions are at different stages of the pandemic

Even as India continues to reel under the daily spike in Covid-19 numbers, experts and medical researchers say that the current wave of infections may decline faster than the previous waves citing fewer hospitalisations and increased awareness among the people. However, they are unsure as to whether the infections in the current wave have peaked.

Pointing out that different regions are at different stages of the pandemic, due to an array of local factors — international arrivals, curbs in place, mask discipline — experts cautioned that it might be unwise to assume that the worst has passed.

Concerning Delhi and Mumbai, which have reported the highest number of Covid-19 infections, fuelled by the Omicron variant, experts said that the decline in numbers may have to be studied for a few more weeks before making assumptions over the peak of the infection wave.

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Dr Samiran Panda, the head of the epidemiological department, Indian Council of Medical Research, said that case trends cannot be established in a few days and that decline has to be tracked over weeks.

“We need to wait for two more weeks before saying Delhi and Mumbai (cases) have peaked and the worst is over…We cannot say this simply on a decline in cases and positivity,” Panda was quoted in a report by the India Today.

Panda said that the Omicron variant has become the major strain and accounts for nearly 80 per cent of the cases, while the rest mostly pertained to the Delta variant.

A report published by SBI Research stated that there is reason for optimism as India is faring better than the USA, which has reported an increase in caseload by around seven times despite double-vaccinating 80 per cent of its population.

The SBI report stated that infections in the top 15 districts have declined to 37.4 per cent in January, from 67.9 per cent in December. However, the report stated that 10 of these top 15 districts are major cities and among them, Bengaluru and Pune still have higher infection rates.

A report by The Hindustan Times, citing the Cambridge Tracker, stated that Bihar, Chandigarh, Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan and West Bengal are likely to see their maximum daily cases in the ongoing third week, while cases in Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to peak in the fourth week of January.

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The Pune district administration recently said that Pune is at least three weeks behind Mumbai in terms of the pace of infection. Hence, the Pune administration too is apprehending a peak by the last week of January.

Panda said that the Covid-19 could become endemic in India after March 11, provided certain conditions are met.

An endemic disease is constantly present in a population or region with relatively low spread. It is different from a pandemic, which is characterised by a sudden increase in cases.

Panda said that mathematical projections show the Omicron wave will last for three months, starting December 11, in India. “We will see some respite March 11 onwards,” he was quoted as saying.

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