India still not out of danger zone as Covid-19 reproductive number above one in eight states

The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is “still raging” as eight states are showing high reproductive numbers of infections, indicating a faster spread of the disease in these regions, the health ministry cautioned on Tuesday.

The case trajectory of Covid-19 has registered a substantial decline from over four lakh daily cases at the peak of the second wave in May to 30,549 on Tuesday, but the increase in the reproductive numbers or the R-factor was an indication that the pandemic was still not over.

“Delta variant is a dominant problem. The pandemic is still raging and the second wave is persisting,” V K Paul, Member (Health) NITI Ayog told reporters here.

He also expressed concern about the R-factor or the reproductive rate of a virus in Jammu & Kashmir (1.4), Himachal Pradesh (1.4), Lakshadweep (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.2), Mizoram (1.2), Karnataka (1.2), Puducherry (1.1) and Kerala (1.1).

A month ago, the R-factor in India was at 0.88, which meant that one infected person was spreading the infection to fewer persons during his period of illness.

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As of Tuesday, the R-factor for India was 1.2, at par with the US, Australia and Canada, which means that one person was spreading the infection to more than one contact.

The ministry said 49.85% new cases reported in the past one week were from Kerala with 10 districts showing an increasing trend in infections.

A central team that visited Kerala found that the state had a poor record of contact tracing at a ratio of 1:1.5, meaning that the exercise was limited to just about one person who may have come in contact with an infected person.

“The central team recommended that instead of 1:1.5 tracing, it should be 1:20,” Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health Ministry said.

He said that in Mallapuram district 91% patients were in home isolation and suggested vigourous containment and contact tracing measures to curb the spread of the infectious disease.