International students put their plans on hold during the lockdown

On May 21, Cambridge University announced that classes for the entirety of the next academic year would be held online. Cambridge's decisive move is something of a rarity in higher education institutions in the West, where most institutions, so far, have held off on taking definite decisions about the coming academic year and have refrained from making public announcements due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

One such student affected by this crisis is Mohammed Nausheer, who has been preparing to attend a Business Studies course in New Zealand for over a year now. The current uncertainty has left him worried.

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In the communication with students, most universities have indicated that courses would be moved online for the first semester of the new academic year. Many of them, however, have remained silent about a possible revision of tuition fees.

According to Sumeet Jain, the co-founder of the Edutech company Yocket, universities shifting classes online without a significant rebate of tuition fees might not cut much ice with international students. "No one is going to pay the same amount for an online course. Experience is also a part of the course, not just knowledge," he says.

On campus or not, for students who have spent more than a year preparing to go abroad, deferment or change of plans is not an option. "I am not really keen on paying Rs 15 lakh for an online education," says Pragathi Ravi, who was supposed to commence her Masters in Washington DC in the upcoming fall semester. "I don't have an option, as I took a year off after my graduation and I don't want to put off my studies for another year or even six months," she says.

Pragathi says her university will only confirm the future course of action by June. "The thing is, they haven't been sending a standard circular on what they plan to do. I wouldn't know all of this if I hadn't written to them," she says.

Where the students stand

Uma Aswani, an academic counsellor based out of Bengaluru, says that most of her students with letters of intent are waiting until June or July to make a decision, while some students have already deferred their enrollments to the Spring semester, in January.

A survey conducted by the British council among 800-odd Indian students found that 43% were likely to continue with their studies, 38% were unsure or thinking of deferment, while 5% had already cancelled their plans.

India ranks second in the list of countries with the highest number of international students, after China. In 2019, 588,728 students left India to study abroad, with the US, Canada, Australia, and China emerging as popular destinations.

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With the disruption caused by COVID-19 this year, there have been no concrete announcements about their welfare from the Indian or foreign governments.

Professor Dr Radhakrishna S Aithal, Director of International Centres for Applied Sciences (ICAS) at the Manipal Academcy of Higher Education, says most of the universities ICAS is in touch with have deferred to commencement of the programme until January or February. "Canada and especially the US have not come back on what the strategy is," he says. "In comparison, things are a bit better controlled in Australian universities," he adds.

A statement by the US consulate spokesperson, while encouraging "Indian students to accept new offers from US educational institutions", says that "whether education is provided on campus or online, universities will ensure all students will receive a quality education and remain on track to return to colleges and complete degrees once it is safe to do so."

A spokesperson of the Australian Department of Education, Skills and Employment said Australian institutions changed the semester start dates right when the travel restrictions were announced.

The National Testing Agency has reopened the applications for the ITT-JEE exams from May 19 - 24, allowing students to try their luck at an entrance exam that has been touted as one of the toughest and most competitive tests in the world.

A question of money

However, it is not just the fate of international students that is at stake. From 2001 to 2019, the number of international students each year increased from 2.1 million to 5.3 million in 2019.

International students, especially from China and India, are an important source of revenue for many universities. In 2018 - 19, for instance, Indian students brought in an estimated $8.13 billion dollars in revenues to the US, with significant contributions to Canada and Australia respectively.

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A recent survey by the group London Economics states that higher education institutions in the UK stand to lose $ 3.2 billion this year. A spokesperson for the British council said that after years of decline in Indian students studying in the UK, "The latest figures showed continued increase in students."

One expected outcome from this crisis might be an increase in enrolment in Indian universities, especially with a 'study abroad' or 'credit transfer' programme.

Sumeet Jain thinks the education sector will weather this out. "Students do not take knee-jerk reactions. A lot of them have been planning this for a year or more and the decisions will be well thought out. The students are much more resilient than we think," he says.