Second Covid-19 surge could be worse than first, warns expert

A prominent epidemiologist warned that the reproduction rate of Covid-19 has crossed the safe threshold in 19 states and that a second surge could be worse than the first.

Speaking on Friday, Dr Giridhar Babu said that R0 (which is the reproduction number), had crossed one in 19 states. Nationwide, it is 1.65. In Karnataka, the R0 is 1.66. This indicates that for one person infected with the virus in the state, that person is transmitting the virus to 1.66 others.

For perspective, Dr Babu pointed out that on March 7, Karnataka’s R0 was 1.23.

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“If the government and the people of India do not act immediately, the second coronavirus wave could be worse than the first,” he said, adding that the UK variant has reached community spread levels in Punjab, and could have reached other states well.

Meantime, pertaining to Bengaluru, he said that the Nimhans laboratory has established yet another Indian variant strain in the city, classified as B.1.36. “Some 43.7% of the outbreak in Bengaluru is because of this variant,” he told DH.

Dr Babu warned that waning antibodies from earlier infection could also trigger reinfections. Added to this possibility is the major danger posed by super-spreader events, he said, adding, however, that he did not want to segregate marriages from other events where infections could spread.

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“The government must restrict the number of people attending these events to forestall a climb in numbers,” he said, adding, however, that he did not believe a lockdown was the answer.

The rationale is that while a lockdown was needed in 2020 to help the health infrastructure of the state and the country scale up, barring a steep spike in cases this time around, a lockdown is irrelevant.

Inoculate all above-18s

The epidemiologist also called on the government to allow anyone over the age of 18 years to get access to vaccines approved by the centre, “at any designated place, and at a fixed price regulated by the government.”

When asked how this could be done with ongoing vaccine dose limitations, he said that emergency use authorisation must be given to all internationally available vaccines such as Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, Novavax, Sputnik V and even Chinese vaccines.

“If an Indian citizen wants to get the Pfizer vaccine, for example, what right do I have to say that they should not have access to it,” he asked, urging the government to provide such vaccines free of cost to people who cannot afford them.