Karnataka has sub-plots in high-stakes national battle

The two-phase Lok Sabha elections may reshape Karnataka's power politics between the Congress and the BJP, making it a high-stakes battle for both camps.

The narrative in Karnataka is no different from the ‘Modi’s popularity versus Congress’ Nyay guarantees’ that prevails nationally. But the elections in Karnataka will test whether Congress’ guarantees get converted into votes once again.

Last year, the Congress promised the five guarantees and won the Assembly elections convincingly.

Having implemented all five guarantees, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar are trying to convert beneficiaries into votes. Both of them have been holding guarantee conventions across the state.

The Congress hopes that the guarantees will result in votes, especially from women.

A good result will matter to Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar individually. The buzz in political circles is that a bad result would impact Siddaramaiah’s continuation as chief minister.

Earlier this year, Siddaramaiah’s son Dr Yathindra said his father could complete a full five-year term “without any hindrance,” if Congress wins a good number of Lok Sabha seats in the state.

A poor performance will also reflect on Shivakumar, the Karnataka Congress president, known as a go-getter. But irrespective of the Congress’ performance in the state, Shivakumar may ask for his turn to occupy the CM’s chair as per a rumoured mid-term change in leadership.

For the BJP, party veteran B S Yediyurappa would want his son B Y Vijayendra, the state president, to cement his political future by delivering good results

If Congress ends up winning more seats, then the knives will be out for Vijayendra. He and his father are already being scoffed at by senior leaders who were denied tickets.

A good show for the BJP will also go a long way in re-building the party’s confidence that was crushed after badly losing the Assembly elections last year.