Karnataka lockdown may have to be extended beyond June 7 as active Covid cases still high

The ongoing lockdown may have to be continued beyond June 7 if the number of active Covid cases does not decline significantly in the coming days, experts say.

Karnataka's active Covid infections form the heart of a new analysis by scientists at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), who point out that actual active case numbers are higher than the projected figures. The actual cases need to be lower if the surge is to be contained.

On May 27, the active caseload should have been less than 3.88 lakh. In actuality, it was 4.02 lakh.

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"What we are seeing is that the number of active cases as they stand today is much higher than the number cases we projected would happen in a worst-case scenario," explained Professor Sashikumar Ganesan, Chairman, Department of Computational and Data Sciences at the IISc.

What exactly is the worst-case scenario? No lockdown.

"This suggests that something has gone wrong with the lockdown and consequently, Karnataka will have to extend the lockdown to contain the surge," Professor Ganesan explained, adding that the next three to four days are crucial to making this determination.

The analysis reveals details about where the lockdown is particularly ineffective.

In their 'S2' scenario, which modelled the stringent lockdown of 2020, the scientists found that only two districts, Kalaburagi and Bidar, were maintaining effective lockdowns.

"This is evinced by the fact that the real active caseload in both these districts is much lower than the projected numbers of the worst-case scenario," he said.

Bengaluru Urban came in third, with a 75% effectiveness in the lockdown. The performance of the other districts was abysmal. The worst was Haveri with only a four percent effective lockdown.

The noted epidemiologist, Dr Giridhara R Babu, pointed out that lockdowns are only effective if associated containment measures are robust.

"In the initial part of the lockdown, there were many relaxations. The four-hour curfew window every morning results in crowds at public spaces. There is no proportionate increase in the testing being done overall including such potential super-spreader sites. A single person infected can potentially spread it to family members and other contacts resulting in sustained transmission," he said.

The failed opportunity to vaccinate a large number of people early this year is another reason why active cases are not declining as they should, said Subramanian Sivakumar, CEO of Pratian Technologies, which analyses Covid-19 data.

"The lockdown is only suppressing the R0. The way to reduce cases is through vaccination. But with Karnataka doing an average of 1.17 lakh vaccinations daily, the state may require seven months to reclaim the situation," he said.