The X factor called Yediyurappa & the challenge to pick his successor

The government headed by Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa completes two years in office on Sunday and the writing on the wall suggests that he is spending his last days in office.

Earlier this week, Yediyurappa dropped big hints that he is on his way out.

The past two years have been a political roller-coaster for the 78-year-old leader, who has had to fight dissidence within the party.

Yediyurappa had to fulfill his promise of rewarding the 16 MLAs who defected from the Congress-JD(S) coalition without offending the ‘native’ BJP leaders.

He also had to deal with some BJP leaders critical of his style of functioning. They alleged that his son, BJP state vice-president B Y Vijayendra, interfered in the administration. This, coupled with the BJP’s unwritten rule of asking its leaders to retire after 75 years of age, hung like a sword of Damocles over him.

With the 2023 Assembly polls under two years away, the BJP has several challenges to overcome.

Also read: Faced several challenges as CM from day one, Yediyurappa says as he stares at exit

If Yediyurappa manages to survive the uncertainty surrounding his continuation, the party will have to address internal rifts, along with complaints against Vijayendra. But, several Yediyurappa loyalists seem to have gone silent amid his imminent exit.

Replacing Yediyurappa risks losing the support of Lingayats, the party’s largest vote bank. The party also hopes to win over the Vokkaligas, the other dominant community, to gain an edge over the JD(S) and Congress that are led by Vokkaligas H D Kumaraswamy and D K Shivakumar, respectively. Meanwhile, fresh demands are being made for a Dalit to be made the CM.

The likelihood of Yediyurappa stepping down has already irked several Lingayat seers who have expressed solidarity with him, warning the BJP of dire consequences. Even Congress’ Lingayat leaders M B Patil and Shamanur Shivashankarappa have supported Yediyurappa, who is arguably the BJP’s tallest Lingayat leader.

“If Yediyurappa is replaced with someone from a different community, it is likely to invite hostility from Lingayats,” political analyst D Umapathy says, describing the BJP’s Catch-22 situation.

“Within the community, the BJP cannot find a leader matching Yediyurappa’s stature. Also, the name of Pralhad Joshi (Brahmin) is being floated for the CM’s post. This will not go down well with Lingayats. Ramakrishna Hegde’s appointment as the CM was an unprecedented situation where Lingayats supported a Brahmin leader. This is not the same,” he explains.

Further, while Yediyurappa is perceived as a ‘soft Hindutva’ ideologue, the BJP is said to be considering a hardliner backed by the RSS to become its face for the 2023 polls.

Former Minister H Ekantaiah says such a move would work against the party. “Karnataka’s political culture does not support extreme right-wing ideology. Such an attempt will backfire. The party has already dented its image in the state,” he says.

However, many BJP leaders strongly believe that their party’s prospects in Karnataka are not tied to one leader, immaterial of his mass appeal.

Requesting anonymity, a senior BJP leader says, “The fear of Lingayats deserting BJP is baseless. The community, which stood with Janata Parivar during Veerendra Patil’s time, has unwaveringly remained with BJP after the Parivar split. Similar to the Janata Party, which thrived despite internal conflicts, the BJP’s presence will remain strong owing to a strong grassroots network of party workers.”

Some leaders are also of the opinion that the Lingayat vote bank cannot be seen as one entity, as there are several groups at work within the community. Nonetheless, BJP leaders that DH spoke to unanimously agree that the party can sustain without Yediyurappa at the helm of affairs, but he cannot be sidelined.

Whoever replaces Yediyurappa will have to find a way to work with him.