Kerala's Covid-19 situation explained: Low sero-survey rates, high daily numbers

In what is a worrying development, the latest state-level sero-survey shows that only 44 per cent of Kerala's population — as opposed to two-thirds or 67 per cent across India — has been exposed to the coronavirus.

Kerala has witnessed a rise in Covid-19 cases over the last few weeks and the low prevalence of the virus coupled with the high testing rate could be one of the factors driving this rise.

Earlier on Thursday, the LDF government announced that it would impose a complete lockdown across the state on July 31 and August 1. Many parts of the state were already under lockdown-like restrictions.

While Kerala is yet to confirm the arrival of a third wave or the strain behind the rise in cases, the state has a better track record in detecting infections as well as curbs in place for longer than other states.

According to earlier sero-surveys, Kerala was able to detect one in five infections, far better than the national of one in 26, which could explain why a large number now emerges and the lockdowns could be a factor why fewer than average (national average) have been exposed to Covid so far. The Northeast and Kerala have recently seen surges in daily infections, causing the Centre to shift its focus there.

Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Thursday said that the Centre would send a 6-member team to Kerala headed by Director, National Centre for Disease Control to help the aid the state in its Covid-19 management.

On Wednesday the state reported 22,056 new cases, forming more than half of the national single-day tally. The total positivity rate (TPR) stood at 11.20 per cent — lower than the 13.63 per cent TPR recorded on July 23.

Although Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan indicated last Friday that the state was possibly on the verge of a third wave, his government has come under increasing pressure to announce relaxations for Onam, as it did recently for Bakrid. The Supreme Court had even slammed the government, saying that the relaxations were 'uncalled for.'