Leave states to allies or contest? Congress faces dilemma

Amid a push to make it agree to leave the electoral battle against the BJP in some states entirely to regional parties, the Congress is on a fightback mode and is not likely to be pushed into a decision at least till year-end.

Parties like Trinamool Congress, AAP and Samajwadi Party would prefer an early decision on a ‘one-on-one’ fight against the BJP, as they believe that a better performance in the Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana would further embolden the Congress.

For the same reason, the Congress is also not willing to make a commitment at the June 23 joint Opposition meeting in Patna. The grand old party, which already has salvaged its position through a resounding victory in the Karnataka Assembly elections, believes it will have a better show in electoral contests later this year that will improve its stock within and outside the Opposition bloc.

With just four days to go for the Patna meet, AAP has made it clear that if the Congress promises not to fight in Delhi and Punjab, it will not fight in Madhya Pradesh while the Trinamool Congress has warned that it will not support the Congress nationally if it allies with the CPI(M) in West Bengal.

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“We have not taken VRS from politics. We have active units in states where non-BJP parties want us to just leave,” a senior Congress leader said.

The Congress also finds a difference. “Those who sermon us on unity should know that we are in these states for long. AAP and Trinamool did not have any presence in Goa or Gujarat when they came to fight us there. Their purpose is to damage the Congress, because they can attract only Congress votes,” the leader said.

At the Patna meeting, parties like the Trinamool Congress are likely to push for the Congress to agree to leave states like West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi to allies. Mamata fired the first shot when she said Congress would have to look elsewhere for support in Delhi if it opposed her in Bengal.

Another reason for regional parties' unease with the Congress is the latter’s growing acceptance among the minorities, especially Muslims. They may not want Congress to fight in their bastions but want it for Muslim votes.

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Muslims overwhelmingly voted for the Congress in Karnataka and its candidate, in a Bengal bypoll, defeated the Trinamool candidate in a minority-dominated seat. Meanwhile, the AAP’s campaign theme in Gujarat and actions in Delhi have also alienated the minority community.

These parties believe that Muslims are moving away from them, which could impact their electoral calculations. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh, who had earlier advised Congress to tweak its strategy, appears to have hinted a change in mind and on Saturday said that the SP would be magnanimous.

The Congress is also unwilling to accept the formula as it believes that post-Karnataka, its stake in states like Telangana has improved. It believes, if it leaves the ground for BRS, the BJP would emerge as the second pole, dislodging one of them. “There is an inherent danger in this,” the leader said.

At the same time, the BRS has not agreed to be part of the joint Opposition efforts and is now setting up units in Maharashtra where the Maha Vikas Agadhi is taking on the BJP. NCP chief Sharad Pawar did not mince words when he said, "Though all parties have the right to expand their base in any state, it remains to be seen if the BRS is a B team (of the BJP).”