MVA crisis: Did Uddhav Thackeray ignore warning signs?

As the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) reels from the latest crisis, it is becoming more and more evident that Maharashtra Chief Minister and Shiv Sena President Uddhav Thackeray ignored too many warning signs that led to this situation.

Saving the MVA government—the coalition of his party and its ideologically opposite Congress and Nationalist Congress Party—is now a gigantic task. And this whammy of runaway MLAs—Shiv Sena member Eknath Shinde along with a few others—comes mid-way in MVA government’s five-year term.

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Mistakes began after the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections, when it became clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party was not in a position to form the government on its own; Shiv Sena then started hobnobbing with the NCP and the Congress, even though several top leaders, including Shinde, advised against it.

But Thackeray’s aides, Sanjay Raut, Anil Parab and Milind Narvekar among others, told the party chief to look towards new beginnings. The party broke long-standing ties with the BJP, and the MVA was ideated and put together by NCP supremo Sharad Pawar.

A large section of Shiv Sena MLAs seems to have supported the MVA government unwilling.

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As the new coalition adjusted to managing the state government, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out and for the next two years Uddhav, as the leader of the MVA, chose to be on work-from-home mode.

During this period, the MVA was constantly at odds with Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari over various issues. Apart from that, Shiv Sena had been targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi frequently regarding myriad issues. Along with the mishandling of the pandemic-related governing, the Shiv Sena had to face the repercussions of the mob lynching of sadhus in Palghar. Party leader Pratap Sarnaik had even written to Uddhav urging him to patch up with the BJP before it was too late and work with Modi.

The MVA got another jolt when the ED arrested two senior leaders, former home minister Anil Deshmukh and now minister-without-portfolio Nawab Malik.

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Uddhav, and son Aaditya, came under fire for the death of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput. Thereafter, prominent party leaders, including spokesperson Raut, Bhavana Gawli, Anand Adsul, Anil Parab and Sarnaik, came under the scanner of the Enforcement Directorate.

Shiv Sena has always been a right-wing party with Hindutva and the welfare of Marathi manoos being its primary area of concern. But the formation of MVA was an amalgamation of clashing ideologies as NCP and the Congress had previously been extremely critical of Shiv Sena. “Then Shiv Sena allied with NCP-Congress, and this made party leaders and workers uncomfortable, as they have been attacking these parties throughout,” an informed source said, adding that Thackeray has been largely inaccessible to party workers and leaders.

The recent humiliation meted out to Yuvraj SambhajiRaje Chhatrapati, the 13th direct descendant of iconic Maratha warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and grandson of legendary social reformer Rajarshi Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj, when he sought Sena's support to contest as an Independent in Rajya Sabha polls and Uddhav's response that he join the party first, could have further angered the Sena MLAs.

The two recent elections—Rajya Sabha and Maharashtra Legislative Assembly—exposed the fissures within the Shiv Sena-led MVA, as all BJP candidates won. In the Rajya Sabha polls, Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Pawar lost, while in the Legislative Council, Congressman Chandrakant Handore faced defeat.

“It was coming in bits and pieces, but now it has compounded and has come has a big jolt,” said a senior MVA leader.