Premature to attribute extreme heatwave in India, Pakistan solely to climate change: WMO

After multiple scientists claimed that the current spell of heatwaves in India and Pakistan are due to climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said it would be premature to attribute it solely to climate change.

The WMO also appreciated warning systems and heat action plans that helped save lives.

In a statement issued on Friday night, the WMO said: "It is premature to attribute the extreme heat in India and Pakistan solely to climate change. However, it is consistent with what we expect in a changing climate. Heatwaves are more frequent and more intense and now start earlier than it did in the past.

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"India, especially the northwest, has been witnessing a third heatwave since March with the current, third spell sending mercury soaring to more than 45 degrees Celsius across dozens of states of India, including the northwestern Himalayan states too.

"Similar temperatures have been seen in Pakistan. The Pakistan Meteorological Department said that daytime temperatures are likely to be between 5 degrees Celsius and 8 degrees Celsius above normal in large swathes of the country.

The agency warned that in the mountainous regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkwa, the unusual heat would enhance the melting of snow and ice and might trigger glacial lake outburst floods or flash floods in vulnerable areas,

"Air quality has deteriorated, and large swathes of land are at risk of extreme fire danger."

India recorded its warmest March on record while Pakistan recorded its highest March temperature in the past 60 years, with a number of stations breaking March records, the WMO said.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has said that heat waves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent in South Asia in this century.

The WMO, endorsing India's Ministry of Earth Sciences' publication on climate change in India that has a whole chapter on temperature change, said: "The frequency of warm extremes over India has increased during 1951-2015, with accelerated warming trends during the recent 30 year period 1986-2015. Significant warming is observed for the warmest day, warmest night and coldest night since 1986."

Through its statement, the WMO also reminded the need for a multi-hazard early warning system that it has promised to ensure for all in the next five years.

"Heatwaves have multiple and cascading impacts not just on human health, but also on ecosystems, agriculture, water and energy supplies and key sectors of the economy. The risks to society underline why the WMO is committed to ensuring that multi-hazard early warning services reach the most vulnerable," it said.

Stating that both India and Pakistan have successful heat-health early warning systems and action plans, including those specially tailored for urban areas, the WMO said: "Heat Action Plans reduce heat mortality and lessen the social impacts of extreme heat, including lost work productivity. Important lessons have been learnt from the past and these are now being shared among all partners of the WMO co-sponsored Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN) to enhance capacity in the hard hit region.

"The South Asia Heat Health Information Network, supported by GHHIN, is working to share lessons and raise capacity across the South Asia region."

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