Survey predicts bad news for Congress; AAP may be close to power in Punjab, BJP to win UP

Congress is likely to be relegated to third position in Goa while falling behind AAP in Punjab

A survey in five states headed for Assembly elections early next year predicted bad news for the Congress as it may lose power in Punjab where AAP may emerge as the single-largest party while BJP is likely to win Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

The ABP-CVoter survey predicted BJP returning power to Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa while Punjab could be headed for a hung Assembly but AAP having a huge advantage needing a couple of seats.

For Congress, it is likely to be relegated to third position in Goa while falling behind AAP in Punjab, which is the only state it is ruling among the states that are going to polls next year.

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BJP is predicted to return comfortably in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh but may lose around 50 seats from the 2017 polls when it baged 312 seats while Samajwadi Party is likely to double its seats from 47. The survey predicted BJP winning 259-267 seats while SP is likely to win 109-117 seats.

The BSP, which won 19 seats, could win only 12-16 seats while Congress may see further decline in the state with just 3-7 seats as against seven won in 2017. Other parties may win 6-10 seats.

In Punjab, AAP appears to have made huge inroads with the survey predicting an increase in seats by more than double -- 51-57 seats -- in an Assembly of 117 seats where the half-way mark is 59.

Congress, which is facing an internal fight between Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and party state chief Navjot Singh Sidhu, is likely to be relegated to second position with 38-46 seats from 77 seats in 2017 polls while Akali Dal may increase its tally (16-24 seats) from the current 15.

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Uttarakhand, where the Congress hopes to return to power, may also go the BJP way for the second time though it may lose some seats in the state where it changed two Chief Ministers in a span of tremonths recently.

In a House of 70, the BJP is likely to win 44-48 seats (57 in 2017), while Congress may win 19-23 seats (11 in 2017). AAP may win up to four seats while others could bag up to two seats.

BJP may return to power with majority in electorally fragile Goa with 22-26 seats in an Assembly of 40. Congress stares at the possibility of being relegated to the third position (3-7 seats) after AAP, which is predicted to win four to eight seats, while others may win 3-7 seats. In the 2017 polls, Congress had emerged as the single largest party but defections helped the saffron party retain power.

Manipur could also return BJP to power, this time with absolute majority with 32-36 seats. Like in Goa, Congress had emerged the single largest party but political manouevering helped BJP snatch power. Congress is likely to win 18-22 seats while NPF is predicted to win 2-6 and others 0-4 seats.

ABP-CVoter poll survey

Uttar Pradesh (403 seats)

BJP -- 259-267
SP -- 109-117
BSP -- 12-16
Cong -- 3-7
Others -- 6-10

Punjab (117 seats)

AAP -- 51-57
Cong -- 38-46
Akali Dal -- 16-24

Uttarakhand (70 seats)

BJP -- 44-48
Cong -- 19-23
AAP -- 0-4
Others -- 0-2

Goa (40 seats)

BJP -- 22-26
AAP -- 4-8
Cong -- 3-7
Others -- 3-7

Manipur (60 seats)

BJP -- 32-36
Cong -- 18-22
NPL -- 2-6
Others -- 0-4