Which way will the wind blow in a 'wave-less' Tamil Nadu election?

Finally it's curtains on probably the longest election campaign in the state's history, lasting four months, for the control of Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government.

The April 6 poll will not just elect the state's 16th assembly but also seal the fate of new generation leaders from DMK and AIADMK who are sweating it out to carve a niche for themselves in the political arena.

Ruling AIADMK led by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, considered a lightweight when he was thrust into the limelight in 2017 just three months after J Jayalalithaa's death, is being challenged by a resurgent DMK now helmed by M K Stalin, the chosen successor of party patriarch M Karunanidhi.

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What is at stake for MKS and EPS?

The election is an acid test for both Palaniswami and Stalin. DMK has been out of power for 10 years and a hat-trick defeat could not just demolish the morale of the cadre, but also lead to questions about his leadership.

For Palaniswami, only retaining power could help avoid the party slipping from his hands as his former boss V K Sasikala has just “stepped aside” from politics and not quit.

Though the 2021 election ground has other players too – actor Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), T T V Dhinakaran's Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and Tamil nationalist outfit Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) – the fight has narrowed down much like other previous elections between DMK and AIADMK.

Though opinion polls have predicted the return of DMK after a decade, the ruling party made a last-ditch effort on Sunday, the last day of campaigning, by splashing a four-page advertisement in major newspapers highlighting the “dark rule” of DMK from 2006 to 2011. Stalin hit back at the AIADMK, terming the advertisement as nothing but a desperate act from a party “staring at defeat.”

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It is irattai ilai illana suriyan (it is either two leaves (AIADMK) or DMK's Rising Sun), that still holds sway across Tamil Nadu while NTK is the preferred party for those in the hinterland looking for an alternative. In urban areas, the favourite “change agent”, especially among youngsters, is MNM with Kamal Haasan himself entering the fray from Coimbatore, the Manchester of South India.

In their pursuit to chart their own course and truly emerge from the shadows of their respective leaders, Stalin and Palaniswami began their campaign too early in the day – in December 2020, three months before the election schedule was out.

Fatigue and talk of change in a 'wave-less' election

In a “wave-less” election in which political pundits say the anti-incumbency is "largely missing”, the fatigue among voters for a 10-year-old government is visible on the ground, across regions with unemployment being flagged as the biggest problem in cities and towns alike.

“People get bored with a government in five years. But voters gave Amma a second chance in the last elections, but unfortunately, she died. I think people are moving towards change this election,” Ravichandran told DH as he handed over lemon soda to a customer in Vridhachalam in northern Tamil Nadu.

Miles away, Dhandapani, who runs a snack bar in Karur in western Tamil Nadu, expressed almost what Ravichandran said. “Ten years is a long time. Let there be change,” he said.

BJP the focal point of DMK's campaign

For the second consecutive election, the DMK made the BJP the “focal point” of its campaign and taking the electoral line as far as to dub every vote cast in favour of AIADMK goes to the saffron party, which is still not liked by many in Tamil Nadu.

At the fag end of the gruelling campaign, DMK candidates even mocked BJP's unpopularity by asking Prime Minister Narendra Modi to campaign for candidates of the AIADMK alliance to “widen their margin.” Even BJP candidates refrained from using pictures of Modi, and Amit Shah in their propaganda material and graffiti instead projected them as nominees who have the "blessings" of late M G Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa. When Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath campaigned in Coimbatore, memes on his visit ruled social media.

The anti-BJP sentiment cannot be brushed aside as a social media phenomenon for it reflects very much on the ground. A farmer in the Tiruvarur district in the Cauvery Delta region put it simply. "AIADMK's friends are not good,” he opined.

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Out of power for a decade now, DMK has projected the April 6 elections as a “fight between Tamil Nadu versus Delhi (read Centre)” in an attempt to paint the AIADMK and its ally BJP with the same brush. Social justice, Hindi imposition, state autonomy, and BJP “remote controlling” AIADMK government are issues that resonated in DMK's campaign.

The campaign hit a rough road after senior leader A Raja made controversial remarks against Palaniswami that prompted the Election Commission to debar him from campaigning for 48 hours. The party was also forced to explain that it was not “anti-Hindu” and give an assurance that law and order will be under control in its regime.

From projecting its 10-year “achievements” to the “good image” of Palaniswami, the AIADMK finally sought refuge in its favourite topic of accusing the DMK of “dynastic politics”, pointing fingers at the rise of Stalin's son Udhayanidhi.

However, some of Udhayanidhi's campaign speeches, especially his showing a brick and sarcastically calling it AIIMS, Madurai to drive home his point that nothing has moved on the ground even two years after the foundation stone was laid for the institute, went viral on social media,

AIADMK, which was found wanting to explain its alliance with BJP, could lose a sizable chunk of votes to its splinter group, AMMK. Besides anti-incumbency, the government's last-minute decision to provide 10.5 per cent internal reservation to Vanniyars within the 20 per cent MBC quota, support to controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act, and farm laws could affect the AIADMK's prospects.

How did the two parties run their campaign?

During the campaign, DMK came across as a “cohesive unit” with Stalin being assisted by his sister Kanimozhi, son Udhayanidhi and other senior leaders, who crisscrossed the state. The party fanned out MPs and senior leaders across the state, especially to the Kongu belt, to enhance the party's prospects. Alliance party leaders too pitched in to do their bit.

But the same was not the case with AIADMK. Palaniswami was forced to take the entire load of campaigning on his shoulders – the CM addressed a minimum of 10 meetings a day, with no support from his second-rung leaders. Palaniswami's deputy O Panneerselvam was not forthcoming to share the burden and chose to spend maximum time in his home constituency of Bodinayakanur in the Theni district.

Many of AIADMK ministers were “boxed” in their own segments with the DMK taking the fight into their bastions by fielding strong candidates.