Will Sasikala be able to take control of the AIADMK?

V K Sasikala was the shadow of late Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and a backroom operator for long.

Sasikala’s first attempt to emerge out of Jayalalithaa’s shadow after the latter’s death was abruptly cut short by the Supreme Court which upheld a Bengaluru trial court order sentencing her to four years in prison in a disproportionate assets (DA) case.

Her second shot at aiming to control the AIADMK now is being challenged by none other than the very people she controlled from behind as the ever-powerful friend of Jayalalithaa.

Sasikala’s chief challenger now is not O Panneerselvam, who rebelled against her after Jayalalithaa’s death, but Edappadi K Palaniswami, a trusted lieutenant once handpicked by her to occupy the Chief Minister’s chair before she proceeded to Bengaluru to serve her jail term.

Her political stocks have plummeted to an all-time low, thanks to the political maneuvering of EPS, who not just controlled the government and the party, but also ensured that Sasikala is not taken back into the AIADMK before the state went into elections in April, though BJP was in favour.

Though the AIADMK is still smarting under the April 6 election defeat, EPS has managed to stonewall Sasikala’s every effort to make a comeback. He controls the party and has pushed OPS, technically his boss in the party, to the backseat.

Read | Coming to politics as AIADMK under EPS-OPS lost power, says Sasikala

Many thought AIADMK seniors would make a beeline at Sasikala’s residence in T. Nagar after the election results, but by leading the party to its best performance in a losing election – it won 66 seats – EPS did not just ensure he stayed the boss but is also keeping the party united, albeit for now.

Sasikala’s calculations in the past six months have gone wrong more than once. Her camp expected an uprising in the party following her release, but she was cold-shouldered even by her staunchest supporters that eventually forced her to “step aside” from politics before the elections. Even after the defeat of the AIADMK, Sasikala’s telephone diplomacy has not created any ripples within the party, though her continued outreach to cadres has unsettled EPS.

Sasikala has not been able to galvanise cadres so far, but she cannot be brushed aside too, political observers say. That her nephew’s party, AMMK, fared very poorly in the election, and leaders quitting the party choosing the DMK over the AIADMK also do not behoove well for her.

However, there is growing realisation within the AIADMK that Sasikala cannot be taken for granted and it is being reflected in actions -- every cadre who has engaged with Sasikala has been shown the door.

Her camp is also attempting at consolidation of Mukulathors, a dominant caste, and hoping that OPS will put his weight behind them if there is a public showdown between Sasikala and EPS. OPS and Sasikala are Mukulathors, who had traditionally supported the AIADMK.

Another factor that has boosted EPS’ image and has prevented many from expressing their support to Sasikala is the BJP’s support to the former Chief Minister.

Though EPS has put up a brave front and has managed to keep the party united since 2017, his problems aren’t over as yet – a slew of alleged corruption charges during his tenure still hangs around his neck, and the DMK government may give life to such complaints anytime.

Political observers point out Sasikala may be waiting for EPS to fall on his own so that her claim to leadership is less resisted. They added that EPS would walk the extra mile to stop her from claiming AIADMK’s leadership.

“EPS will do his best in stopping Sasikala from coming anywhere near the AIADMK headquarters, much less than letting her stake claim to the leadership. Because he knows any space to her will only derail his political career abruptly,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH.