All eyes on Karnataka today

It does not require any great imagination to surmise that the Karnataka Assembly election results is in focus across the country today. While the denizens of the state voted for a new government in Karnataka, the impact of its outcome can potentially alter the political landscape of the country.

There are more reasons than one. For the governing BJP in the state and the Narendra Modi government at the Centre have invested huge energies and resources in seeking a mandate for a “double-engine sarkara” while its principal Opposition, Congress, hopes the result will start the process of a turn-around in its political fortunes and kickstart the process of realignment of parties ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

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There is an interesting Karnataka connection in the Congress path to bouncing back. Weeks after electing veteran Mallikarjun Kharge as the national party president, the Grand Old Party rode into office in Himachal Pradesh, the home state of BJP national president Jagat Prakash Nadda.

Besides these two major formations, stakes are high for parties which remain in the camp opposed to the BJP, with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar working on some arrangement. Nitish Kumar, a seasoned socialist leader of the Janata Dal (United), has embarked on a mission to bring together scattered and fractious opposition parties in the country to collectively take on the BJP in 2024.

Nitish Kumar has completed a round of meetings in various capitals and has plans to take the process forward soon after the Karnataka poll results. He is clear that the plan cannot succeed without the participation of the Congress in it.

Here lies the nub. Many regional parties outside the BJP orbit loathe to concede any space to the Congress. These are in states where these outfits are either in government or occupy a dominant opposition place.

They include the likes of Aam Aadmi Party, Bharat Rashtra Samiti, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Samajwadi Party, and Trinamool Congress. Leaders of at least two of these, K Chandrasekhara Rao (BRS) and Mamata Banerjee (TMC), nurture national ambitions.

Check out our full coverage of Karnataka Assembly elections here

Just as the Bihar CM has set out on his mission, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik asserted that the BJD will not align with anyone. The pronouncement came a day after he met Nitish Kumar, when he went to New Delhi and met Prime Minister Modi. As Nitish Kumar soldiers on, questions that crop up are: Will these parties, along with existing alliance partners of the Congress, agree to have a joint candidate in the 2024 general elections? And who will be their prime ministerial candidate, the one to throw down the gauntlet to Modi? In theory, one can refer to the data of votes polled to argue that the ‘Index of Opposition Unity’ can dislodge the incumbent government at the Centre. In reality, the dots do not join to offer a straight line.

A peep into history shows at least three instances when political parties of various hues sank differences and brought about a change of guard through the ballot. On two occasions, the central character behind such an exercise commanded moral authority, with little personal ambition.

In 1977, the Janata Party experiment was crafted by Sarvodaya leader Jayaprakash Narayan, who persuaded former Congress leaders, the Socialists and the then Bharatiya Jana Sangh to come together on a single platform. The coalition successfully removed the Indira Gandhi government in the post-Emergency election.

Some two decades later, Marxist leader Harkishan Singh Surjeet played a major part in piecing together Janata Dal, the Left, and several regional outfits to form the United Front government, with liberal help from the Congress.

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Subsequently, this resulted in a major change in the political landscape, with the BJP and the Congress deciding to be the axis around which parties with similarity of purpose work together. Since then, the policy remains in place, though since 2014 the BJP has emerged as the dominant party, able to win a majority on its own.

Today, at the national level, the BJP is way ahead of its challengers, with Modi still hugely popular. His personal drive to power is backed by a solid BJP election machinery and the silent cadres of the RSS.

Collectively, these forces are directing energies with the twin objective of achieving a rare distinction for Narendra Modi to become the first PM after Nehru to be voted to office for the third time in a row; and touching, if not surpassing, the 400-plus seats mark of the Congress under Rajiv Gandhi.

Parties opposed to the BJP are aware that the next general election offers a streak of light that they need to follow with intense focus to emerge from the current state they are in.

In politics it is said that there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. In the case of non-BJP parties, the common thread is to keep the head above the swirling waters and avoid being swamped.

Yet, if their differences persist and divisions continue to run deep on the issue of who should lead them, these parties can refer to the 2004 formula that Marxist leader Surjeet proposed to Sonia Gandhi – first maximise Lok Sabha seat wins in states where the parties are strong and then revisit the leadership issue post-election.

As a party with a pan-India presence, between now and next summer, the Congress is aware that besides its performance in Karnataka, those in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan later in the year would form the backdrop as it joins the discussion table.

Either way, the path is daunting and littered with boulders, and the BJP promises to make the terrain tougher through a counter-narrative against the possible coalition.

In this scenario, Nitish Kumar’s avowed disinterest in being the PM candidate is a good starting point and, backed by Congress’ inclination to accommodate regional parties, could become a catalyst for change. As Prussian leader Otto Van Bismarck noted in the 19th century, “Politics is not an exact science”. He characterised it as “the art of the possible.”

(The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi)