Are Australia-China ties on the mend?

The ties between Beijing and Canberra have experienced significant ups and downs due to various contentious issues. In 2018, Canberra accused China of interfering in its internal politics. The same year, Australia banned the Chinese company Huawei from installing 5G, citing security reasons. Additionally, Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, prompting Beijing to use diplomatic and economic coercion, resulting in a backlash in Australia. Canberra also criticised the Chinese crackdown on the protesters in Hong Kong and raised human rights concerns in Xinjiang and Tibet. The ties hit a nadir when China listed 14 grievances, causing Australian perceptions of China to decline.

Tensions escalated further when Canberra decided to join the Aukus security pact, which in effect was a huge defence upgrade. Australia and the US share an intelligence alliance called the Five Eyes. Beijing perceives Aukus as a means to target it in the Indo-Pacific region. Popular perceptions in Australia continue to see China as a security threat to the region. The Chinese security pact with the Solomon Islands has added to these fears. The deepening of US-Australia strategic and defence cooperation has not gone unnoticed in Beijing either, especially Canberra’s commitment to buy long-range missiles. Aukus has even given Australia access to Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines. Technically, Canberra will have the possibility for the first time to strike adversaries from a distance.

Overall, for Canberra, it’s a game of catch-up while remaining a small partner in the Anglosphere.

The question is whether the recent meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Xi Jinping in Beijing will be a turning point in the relationship. Despite years of rancour, there are some promising signs of improvement. Australia, with a strong 5.5% citizenry of Chinese ancestry, recognises the importance of addressing intricate details of the relationship beyond grand strategies and narratives.

On the trade front, some impediments have been addressed. China removed some import restrictions on Australian coal, barley, and timber. The possibilities are that Australian wine and lobsters will find their way back to the Chinese markets in the near future. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 32% of its trade, and is the sixth largest foreign investor in Australia. China accounts for 21% of Australia’s coal exports. Perhaps China’s decision to become carbo-neutral threatens Australia’s economic security. Hence, there seems to be much potential for green-energy cooperation between Australia and China. Differences also persist between the two sides on China’s desire to join the expanded Trans-Pacific Partnership. Any decision in this context will require the unanimous consent of all the members, which seems unlikely at this point in time, as some have reservations about admitting China.

The possibilities for an annual dialogue are also very much on the cards. Economics dominates the relationship between the two countries. Australia is in a position where it has to expand its strategic ties with the US, along with its economic relationship with China. However, Australia cannot merely look at China as a market for its wine and lobsters. It’s more complex than that. Though China’s wolf-warrior tone has come down, the ties are far from normal. Both are looking at new ways to heal old wounds.

Before Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to China, President Biden’s parting advice was “trust but verify”. Though the sticking points remain, the recent summit meeting between Albanese and Xi Jinping has provided some hope for the future. The road ahead is arduous, and as Prime Minister Albanese realistically put it, “We need to cooperate with China where we can and disagree where we must”. Though the rhetoric has softened, anxieties remain. Both sides remain cautious, realising that ice thaws, but slowly. Perhaps if Washington-Beijing ties become less confrontational, the chances of an upswing in Canberra-Beijing ties seem more possible. Australia has to delicately balance its compulsions to be a strategic partner of the US while allying with India, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, and Pacific Island states like Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga. Quad is now working towards more specific outcomes. More recent Australian foreign policy white papers have brought out these dilemmas.

China’s assertive foreign policy continues to be a cause for concern in the relationship. Overcoming the ongoing stasis in the relationship is likely to take a long time. The question is whether China is more of an economic partner, a security threat, or both. Australia’s dilemma is to balance interconnectedness with friction. Australia has to take China for what it is, rather than what it wishes it to be.

(The writer is a professor in the Dept. of International Studies, Political Science, and History in Christ (deemed to be university), Bengaluru)