China's expanding Central Asian footprint worries Russia

To offset Chinese influence, Russia has asked India to expand its political, economic and security linkages with Central Asian countries

According to several reports, Russia is increasingly concerned about China's surging influence in Central Asia (CA). Recently, Russia and India discussed the prospects of joint manufacture of defence equipment and counterterrorism exercises in the Central Asian countries.

After implementing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China has become a much bigger economic partner for most Central Asian countries, undermining the traditional influence of Russia. It has broken Russia's monopoly on Central Asia's energy and other goods exports, becoming their first or second most significant investment and trade partner. China bought 33.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) of the 63.2 bcm gas produced by Turkmenistan in 2019. Due to a price dispute, Russia could not buy any (2016-19).

China's cumulative investments in Kazakhstan stood at $32.63 billion, $6.8 billion in Turkmenistan, $5.44 billion in Uzbekistan, $4.73 billion in Kyrgyzstan and $ 1.61 billion in Tajikistan (2005-18). While earlier, its investments were in the oil and gas assets, roads, railroads, power plants and electrical grids, now these are focused on establishing factories to process local raw materials with increasing hiring of local workers. These investments are altering the Russia centric orientation of the Central Asian economies.

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Russia has become a junior partner to China in bilateral trade as well. In 2018, China's trade with these countries was about $41.7 billion, almost twice that of Russia. It accounted for 22 per cent of all Central Asian exports and 37 per cent of their imports. Several Central Asian countries are now trussed deeply in China's debt trap. The debt of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan owed to China is about 20 per cent of their respective GDPs, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan about 16 per cent and Kazakhstan 6.5 per cent (2018).

China's BRI has achieved increased traction in Central Asia due to large loans provided by Beijing and the inability of the Russian companies to secure financing for the execution of projects after the western countries imposed sanctions following Russia's occupation of Crimea (2014). The progress of Russia's Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has been lacklustre as some Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan see it primarily in economic terms while Russia views it more for regaining its earlier influence. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been reluctant to join the EEU.

In the security field, which used to be Russia's exclusive preserve, China is gradually expanding its role, much to Moscow's chagrin. In 2016, China set up a base in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakshan region, manned by its paramilitary and armed police to prevent the infiltration of Uighur activists via the Wakhan corridor. China has also established (2016) a new mechanism that includes Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan to monitor the security situation in this area. In addition, China has constituted (2020) a group of five Central Asian countries foreign ministers for annual consultations. Since 2002, China has conducted several exercises with the Central Asian security and police forces and emerged as an important exporter of military equipment (mainly air defence systems, drones, armoured carriers and surface missiles) and technologies.

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Some CA countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been augmenting their national identity by encouraging the Latinisation of their national languages and discouraging the use of Russian Cyrillic alphabets. They harbour apprehensions about Russia's intervention, given the precedent of Crimea and numerous ethnic Russians living there. The creeping influence of China has fostered deeper linkages with certain ruling elites. The president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, is a fluent Mandarin speaker; Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov was born and educated in China and has business ties there.

The US influence in Central Asia has abated with its declining interest in Afghanistan. For instance, its security assistance to Tajikistan declined from $450 million a decade ago to about $11 million in 2020. Russia and China have prevailed upon the Central Asian countries not to provide any bases to the US for its counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan.

Russia is unable to satisfy the needs of the Central Asian countries due to its low economic growth (average about 0.8 per cent between 2013-20). President Vladimir Putin has avoided reforms, which may undermine his regime's foundation and capacity to manage change -- the lessons of the Gorbachev era.

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Russia has asked India to expand its political, economic and security linkages with the Central Asian countries. This is also in India's interest as it would not like to be encircled by an aggressive China from the north and east along with its "iron brother" Pakistan in the west. A significant constraint for India is the lack of connectivity as the trade routes to the Central Asian countries pass through Pakistan-Afghanistan and Iran. The Iran route was severely hampered earlier due to the US sanctions. India and the Central Asian countries are now exploring setting up new transportation links through the Chabahar port.

India has extended a credit line of $1 billion to these countries for setting up new projects. Its private sector has made some investments in pharmaceuticals and auto-component sectors. India has provided a large number of scholarships for the training of experts. The US should facilitate India in expanding its cooperative activities with the Central Asian countries, as these would complement its objective of reducing China's dominance in this strategic region.

(Yogesh Gupta is a former ambassador)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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