Is China brokering a post-US order?

The US’ complicated relations in the region have provided China with operational space in West Asia

China began by dabbling in West Asia, toying with the idea of a viable relationship with the Taliban. Marking further inroads, it then brokered the Saudi-Iran deal recently and has now embarked on a peace plan for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. These steps mark an inflection point for China’s desire to expand global influence and carve a space in the traditional
areas of influence of the US. Perhaps the most concrete development has been the Saudi-Iran deal in this regard. Questions regarding China’s diplomatic arrival in the region and what it means for US influence in the region are now beginning to be asked. From the West Asian region’s perspective and the political churn therein, this development does not seem as surprising.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran have all made efforts to broaden the horizons of their hitherto America-centric foreign policy. A fractured global order due to the lingering impacts of the pandemic and the ongoing war in Europe have all but hastened this change. China has taken advantage of the perceived void left by America’s retreat from the region, particularly its withdrawal from Afghanistan. In contrast to the US’s frequently confrontational foreign policy in the region, China appears to prefer to portray itself as an honest broker. However, such aspirations remain hamstrung by China’s reluctance to get deeper into the region’s complexities as well as lingering US influence in the region and beyond.

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Saudi Arabia’s discontent with Washington’s lack of security provisions for the Kingdom in light of the attack on their oil facilities by the Houthis and the removal of the Houthis from the list of terrorist outfits by the Biden administration has been made evident in its ‘cold fist’ with President Biden last year. Concerns in Washington prompted its decision to send Patriot anti-missile interceptors fulfilling the long-standing demand from Saudi Arabia early last year.

The 2022 OPEC Plus group’s decision to reduce the production of oil before the midterm elections in the US had prompted the ire of the latter, which believed that such a decision was aligned with the concerns of a heavily sanctioned Russia. The Biden administration promised ‘consequences’ for the Saudi Kingdom as a retaliatory measure for their actions. The West, in its effort to control the soaring
oil prices, was also in talks with other West Asian countries to dissuade them from reducing oil production.

A fundamental strategy of China has been to not hold countries publicly and globally accountable for their domestic violations of human rights, unlike the US, giving them their own space to operate under international radar. Biden had publicly promised to hold Crown Prince Salman guilty for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. This resulted in the awkwardness and contention seen during Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia in the middle of last year, with much global criticism slamming Biden’s reputation for failing to keep his end of the bargain.

Washington’s uncertainty and obscurity in policy while dealing with Tehran have made the latter look for viable alternatives, and China appears to be willing to fulfil that role. More so, the US is an ally of Iran’s two archrivals in the region: Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran’s economy is deteriorating as a result of crippling American sanctions imposed in response to its nuclear ambitions, and it is facing an internal political challenge in the form of Hijab protests. As a result, China, which relies heavily on West Asia for oil, has a vested interest in projecting itself as a peace broker in the region and becoming an anchor in the region. China’s push to make Iran a member of the SCO is part of its regional plans.

The US’ increasingly complicated relations in the region have provided operational space to China in West Asia. However, China’s role as a mediator remains limited by its lack of understanding, experience, and the region’s own deep divisions that transcend centuries. The ongoing war in Europe and the consequent fractures in the global order have made the region more contentious for the US.

On the other hand, China finds the anti-West axis growing with support from Iran and Russia. As a result, will the post-Russian-Ukraine war order be far less favourable to US influence in West Asia? While calling this the post-American era in the Middle East may be getting ahead of the international order’s evolution, rapid as it is, the competition and evolving political and strategic alternatives in the West Asian region may have further complicated America’s position. Washington’s dictates arenot mandatory anymore to the region, often forcing the US to work with its allies in the Indo-Pacific region. The future of American hegemony seems contested worldwide, not only because of China or a vehemently challenging Russia, but because of a new order where changing power relations between a mix of countries are led by Middle Powers whose interests have compelled them to look beyond traditional
notions of great power politics.

(Mishra is Fellow ORF Delhi and teaches in various
universities. Goenka is a
research intern at ORF Kolkata.)