Ukrainian offensive a new phase of war

In a new development in the Ukraine-Russia war, the recent Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region has forced thousands of Russians to flee their homes. This is likely the first time that foreign troops have invaded Russia since Hitler’s invasion during the Second World War. Ukraine’s President Zelensky argues that Russia must now face the consequences of its invasion of Ukraine.

As he said, “Russia brought the war to our land.” This is perhaps one of the largest assaults on Russian territory since the war began in 2022. The Ukrainian public’s pent-up anger is such that they feel duty-bound to fight with unwavering resolve, and any compromise or concession to Moscow is seen in Kyiv as a defeat. Unsurprisingly, thousands of Ukrainians are volunteering to take up arms.

The longer the Ukrainian offensive continues, the greater the pressure on Putin. More than 200,000 Russians have fled their homes in the Kursk region so far. Ukraine may use Kursk as the ‘crown jewel’ and ‘bargaining chip’ in future negotiations with Russia. Zelensky has suggested that the captured territories could serve as an “Exchange fund”. Strangely, most Ukrainian officials have remained relatively silent on the invasion, and why not if it is working according to plan?

Putin has long projected himself as the sole protector of Russia’s national interests, but that image has been damaged. He cannot afford to let this Ukrainian offensive continue. Putin had justified what he called the Special Military Operation in Ukraine as necessary to keep Russia safe. However, NATO’s presence along Russia’s border has only grown. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both Finland and Sweden have joined the NATO alliance in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Putin’s strategy has consistently been to reassure the Russian people that their national security interests are secure. Hence, he has avoided using terms like invasion or incursion to describe the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, instead referring to it as the “situation on the border” and a “provocation.” Putin has promised to “force the enemy out” of Russia and continues to believe that the West is fighting Russia, using the Ukrainians. Russia’s Foreign Ministry brands the Ukrainian offensive as a terrorist action.

Zelensky is seeking a “just peace,” and the Ukrainian offensive seems to be a step towards that goal. The raids might cease if Putin acknowledges this reality. Zelensky has long insisted that the war will not end until Russia withdraws from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, which was occupied in 2014. Many NATO members have supported Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk as an act of Kyiv’s self-defence.

So far, Putin has maintained a bold face, showing no remorse or regret for the invasion of Ukraine. He continues to vigorously cling to the illusion of a Russian victory. However, the Ukrainian offensive has created a dilemma for Putin. Hundreds of Russian troops have been captured as prisoners of war (POWs). Moscow is now forced to pull out reserves from battleground regions in Ukraine like Kharkiv and even Russia-occupied Crimea, which will reduce the pressure on Ukrainian forces in those regions. There are also rumours that Russia is moving troops from the territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Coast to the Kursk region. Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. For the present, Putin has put peace talks with Ukraine on a long pause.

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia was planned in absolute secrecy. Ukraine evaded suspicion by making it look like a defensive reinforcement. The Ukrainians strategically avoided taking the Russians head-on and opted to bypass them. The Kursk attack also signifies a major intelligence failure
on the part of the Russians. Presently, the Ukrainians claim to be in control of 1150 sq km of Russian territory, including the important towns of Sudzha and Serhiivka, covering a total of 82 settlements.

An emergency has been declared in the Russian border region of Belgorod, following the Kursk offensive. Last Sunday, the Ukrainians blew up a strategically important bridge on the Seym River in the Kursk region, depriving Russia of important logistical capabilities and lines of communication.

Ukraine intends to create a “security zone,” a buffer zone in the Kursk region, to protect Ukraine’s border communities from persistent Russian artillery and missile firepower. Whether the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region will turn out to be a masterstroke and a new page in the war, only time will tell.

(The writer is a professor in the Dept. of International Studies, Political Science, and History at Christ Deemed to be University, Bengaluru)