Why Modi can afford protracted discord with farmers

The BJP seems to have deduced that outside of the headlines and certain pockets of farmers’ resistance elsewhere, beyond Punjab and Haryana, the protest against the Centre’s three farm laws isn’t costing it much politically in the rest of the country.

The farm leaders’ flirtation with election campaign in West Bengal apart, in none of the four states going to elections is the issue of farmers’ agitation central to the debate.

As of now, this prolonged protest, mostly concentrated around the borders of the national capital, appears to have a long shelf life even beyond the wheat harvest and procurement exercise. Stakeholders on either side of the divide don’t seem to be suffering much from the protracted conflict.

So, why has the Modi government opted for a ‘go slow’ approach after back-to-back rounds of dialogue with the farm leaders? Just like the three farm bills and the opposition to it, the devil lies in the detail.

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Currently, the BJP’s electoral stake in Punjab or Haryana is not sizable, but the farmers’ resistance has woken up the party to the need for a long-term strategy. Currently, its strategy is to tire out the protesters and to send out a signal to the rest of the country how small sections of people (read farmers) have been obstructing a nationalist party’s vision for India’s grandeur, said a political analyst.

The dynamics of the relationship between poll results in the four states heading for elections and an angry farm sector will be interesting to watch. Those election results will not only decide the direction and intensity of the farmers’ agitation, it will also determine if the Centre, hemmed in by unrelenting farmers, chooses the path of confrontation or reconciliation.

The BJP won’t mind its waning in Punjab and Haryana if it helps the party gain sizable footprints in other states with a narrative built around its claim of standing up for the national interest in the face of the farmers’ protest. Things have come to a stage when both sides of the divide can afford to let the protest stretch longer, said a farm economist, requesting anonymity. As long as the Delhi borders -- Singhu, Tikri and even Ghazipur -- thrive in the headlines, the farm leaders can stay ensconced in their new-found importance. On the other hand, the BJP, too, can rest assured that the Modi-worshipping hordes, the urban business and trading classes as well as the service sector will only shift closer to the political right.

Indeed, with the farmers’ unions weaving a narrative that the new laws are aimed against farmers, big and small, and being able to rope in labour unions, it is becoming a clear Left vs Right fight.

The BJP is aware of its falling stock in Punjab. Its marriage of convenience with the Akali Dal has ended in a divorce. Punjab goes to polls in less than 11 months and the BJP, which fought on 23 seats out of the total 117 in alliance with the Akali Dal last time, is struggling to find winnable candidates for the remaining seats.

The party’s denials apart, in Haryana, too, the BJP is treading on thin ice. Its alliance partner, the Janata Jananayak Party (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, who is the Deputy CM in M L Khattar’s government, has arguably done little beyond lip service when it comes to supporting farmers, despite its pro-farmer credentials. Chautala, who is looking to make further inroads into Jat-land, is unwilling to rock the boat for now. He holds sizable cabinet portfolios in the government and would want to make hay while the sun shines.

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The politics around the farmers’ agitation has the Congress in Haryana smiling, despite losing the no-confidence motion it proposed against the Khattar government recently. The Congress managed not only to garner the support of some independents in the state Assembly, who voted in support of the motion, it also won in its bid to expose the JJP for failing to walk the talk. Farm leaders had given a clarion call to MLAs to vote in favour of the no-confidence motion. Not one JJP legislator heeded the call. The Congress proved its point that both the JJP and the BJP were faking their pro-farmer credentials.

A not-so-big state like Punjab has more than three scores of farmers’ unions, something that could undermine the calls for farm unity. Some of these unions are ploughing a lonely furrow on the farm agitation. Personality clashes, conflicts over agenda, turf fights and allegations of being hand-in-glove with one party or the other have been the bane of the farm unions’ narrative for decades now. The Centre is waiting for some critical point in the agitation for the current semblance of unity to unravel. In fact, if the unions have remained united so far, it is more because of pressure from the grassroots than due to the ability of their leaders to manage or reconcile contradictions.

The fault-lines between farm labourers and farmer unions are much deeper and wider than new-to-the-issue hacks converging upon the tent cities at Delhi’s borders realise. Vast sections of farm labourers in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh belong to the lower castes, with a history of exploitation at the hands of upper caste farmers.

What has gone almost unnoticed in Punjab but is being felt intensely by many is the widening of the urban-rural fault-line. While one sees small crowds of people venturing out at town squares waving farmers’ flags and asking people to honk if they support the agitation, many urban folks see this phenomenon as the countryside taking over the cities.

If further fault-lines emerge within the ongoing movement, or when they will inevitably do after protesters return to their villages, the frustration within the ranks of farmers and the labour class then will likely open new possibilities even for the BJP.