Power for Power: North Korea returns to a show of force

North Korea issued warnings for more than a week. It swore that the Biden administration would pay a “price,” accused it of raising “a stink” on the Korean Peninsula and called Washington’s effort to open a channel of communication a “trick,” vowing to deal with the United States “power for power.”

Now, it appears that North Korea is done talking.

On Thursday it delivered its latest warning by launching two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast — the first such test by the country in a year and its first significant provocation against the United States under President Joe Biden.

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The launch, which defied the UN Security Council’s ban on ballistic missile tests by North Korea, indicated that the country was once again resorting to a show of force, raising tensions to gain leverage as the Biden administration finalises its North Korea policy review. The test was also seen as a signal to Washington that Pyongyang will carry out more provocative tests, involving longer-range missiles, if it decides Biden’s policies are unreasonable.

“North Korea uses weapons tests strategically, both to make needed improvements to its weapons and to garner global attention,” said Jean H. Lee, a North Korea expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “With the United States hinting that it will seek to tighten the sanctions regime, North Korea will be looking to expand its arsenal by ramping up testing.”

The Biden administration has been reviewing whether to deal with North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats with more sanctions, a new round of dialogue or a mix of both. As the policy review continues — and the possibility that the Biden administration will abandon the summit diplomacy of former President Donald Trump grows — North Korea appears to be “returning to a familiar pattern of using provocations to raise tensions,” Lee said.

The North’s maneuvers leave the Biden administration with a difficult choice. Even if it engages North Korea with another round of negotiations, there is no guarantee that the country will give up its nuclear arsenal, which has continued to expand in recent years.

Read | North Korea missile test casts shadow over Biden admin

In October, North Korea displayed what appeared to be its largest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile during a nighttime military parade in Pyongyang. North Korean hackers stole $316.4 million from 2019 to November 2020, attacking financial institutions and virtual currency exchanges to raise money for its weapons programs, according to UN diplomats familiar with the matter.

US officials fear that North Korea would simply use more talks to buy time to perfect its nuclear capabilities. But more pressure from the United States is bound to prompt North Korea to attempt more provocative missile launches, and possibly push the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war, as it did in 2017.

The regime in Pyongyang, which sees its leader, Kim Jong Un, as a godlike figure, responds strongly to any possible slight from the United States. The ballistic missile test Thursday came a day after senior US officials dismissed an earlier North Korean missile test as “normal military activity.”

That test, which occurred Sunday, involved two short-range cruise missiles. Biden said the it created “no new wrinkle.”

“This latest North Korean missile launch is most likely a reaction to US President Joe Biden’s downplaying and seeming to laugh off their weekend missile tests,” said Harry J. Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the National Interest in Washington. “The Kim regime, just like during the Trump years, will react to even the slightest of what they feel are any sort of loss of face or disparaging comments coming out of Washington.”

North Korea conducted its last major weapons tests in late 2017, when it launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that it said was powerful enough to deliver a nuclear warhead to the United States. It then abstained from missile tests as Kim engaged in diplomacy with Trump.

After a Kim-Trump summit collapsed without a deal in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019, North Korea resumed a series of short-range ballistic missile tests from May 2019 until March of last year, when the tests were halted amid the coronavirus pandemic. Trump dismissed those short-range tests, touting North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests as one of his biggest foreign policy achievements.

As details of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy are made available in the coming weeks, North Korea is likely to resume raising tensions, analysts said.

Kim “will keep it up through graduated escalation, culminating in an emphatic show of force,” potentially including the flight test of a new, bigger but untested ICBM that North Korea rolled out during a military parade last October, said Lee Sung-yoon, a North Korea expert at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.

At a party meeting in January, Kim vowed to further advance his country’s nuclear capabilities, declaring that it would build new solid-fuel ICBMs and make its nuclear warheads lighter and more precise. He called establishing a nuclear force in North Korea “a strategic and predominant goal” against adversaries.

Kim also said his foreign policy would focus on “containing and subduing” the United States, “our foremost principal enemy.” He stressed that its North Korea policy “will never change, whoever comes into power in the US” And in recent days North Korea has made its annoyance with the Biden administration abundantly clear.

Last week, Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister and his spokeswoman in relations with Washington and Seoul, accused the United States and South Korea of raising “a stink” on the Korean Peninsula with their annual military drills. North Korea also said it felt no need to respond to recent attempts by the Biden administration to establish dialogue, dismissing them as a “delaying-time trick.”

On Friday, after a North Korean businessman was extradited from Malaysia to face trial in a US court on charges of money laundering and violating international sanctions, North Korea warned that Washington would pay “a due price.”

The series of statements left officials and analysts wondering what would be next. With its missile test Thursday, “North Korea was following up on Kim Yo Jong’s warning,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, a think tank near Seoul.

Analysts are closely watching Washington to see whether Biden’s approach to North Korea will move away from the more direct engagement favored by Trump and toward former President Barack Obama’s “strategic patience,” which meant gradually escalating sanctions.

When Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Seoul last week, he said that the policy review included both “pressure options and potential for future diplomacy,” and that it would be completed in close coordination with South Korea and Japan.

He also called on China to use its vast economic influence on North Korea to help roll back its nuclear weapons program.

US officials frequently complain that China has failed to crack down on North Korean sanctions evasions that occur in Chinese territorial waters. They have also said that China was probably helping North Korea with the cybertheft it has used to fund its nuclear program in recent years. But the missile test Thursday showed that China’s influence on North Korea remained “limited,” Cheong said.

“North Korea believes that if the United States tries to impose sanctions, China will provide cover for it,” he said.