People shop at a market in Srinagar, Monday, March 11, 2024.
Credit: PTI Photo
New Delhi: High food price pressure is acting as an obstacle in achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of bringing down inflation to 4% even though there has been a steady decline in core inflation in recent months, the central bank noted in its monthly bulletin released on Tuesday.
“The steady decline in core inflation would have taken down headline inflation towards the target of 4% even sooner and faster, but for the repetitive incidence of short amplitude food price pressures,” the report said.
The headline retail inflation in India has been above the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) medium-term target of 4% for more than four years. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation stood at 5.09% in February. Food inflation jumped to 8.66% in February from 8.3% in January. However, core inflation or inflation excluding food and fuel prices, eased to 3.5% in February from 3.7% in the previous month.
The CPI readings for January and February 2024 show that the winter easing of vegetable prices turned out to be shallow and short lived, the RBI noted in the report.
The softening of core inflation has been broad-based. Fuel prices remain in deflation and this may get pronounced in March due to the reduction in price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG).
“Overall, headline inflation’s momentum turned positive in February 2024, offsetting a favourable base effect. Accordingly, monetary policy has to remain in a risk-minimisation mode, guiding inflation towards the target while sustaining the momentum of growth,” the report added.
On economic expansion, the RBI noted that 8% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth can be sustained.
“The Indian economy is experiencing a conducive macroeconomic configuration that can be its launching pad for a step-up in its growth trajectory. Over the period 2021-24, growth has averaged above 8%; and the underlying fundamentals indicate that this can be sustained and even built upon,” it said.
However, the RBI noted that the "global economy is losing steam, with growth slowing in some of the most resilient economies and high frequency indicators pointing to further levelling in the period ahead.”
Citing consumption expenditure data, the RBI noted that there are significant per capita income shifts underway.
“The biggest segment of aggregate demand – private final consumption expenditure – remained low, despite the third quarter coinciding with the festival season. Moreover, government final consumption contracted during the quarter,” it said.