The Economic Survey to be presented in Parliament on Friday is likely to chart out the course of India's recovery in the most comprehensive way, after the pandemic sent the economy into a tailspin.
The Survey — the government's flagship report on the state of economy, its prospects and the way forward — may ask the government to restrict its Budget for 2021-22 to laying down policy road map for just one year, and also consider giving a 5-10 year guidance to put the economy back on track.
The Survey, which comes against the backdrop of a severe contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the July-September quarter, is expected to deliberate on two significant aspects — how to raise output in the economy and create jobs, without which no amount of government spending and private consumption can be successful.
Economists, policymakers and other stakeholders will be keenly watching for the first official economic growth projections that the Survey makes after a massive 23.9% year-on-year (YoY) decline in the April-June quarter. This was the first GDP contraction in more than 40 years. For the July-September quarter, India's GDP contracted 7.5%.
The Survey’s projections will provide a cue to policymakers on how to move ahead on the path of reconstruction of the Covid-hit economy.
Besides a broad macro picture and the way forward, it will also analyse trends in prices, money supply, jobs, infrastructure, health, education and agriculture and other factors that will help rebuild the economy through the Budget.
Authored by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, the Survey will suggest to the government the focus areas that can lead the country to achieving its target of a $5-trillion economy by 2024-25.
This is the first time that the Economic Survey is being presented two days ahead of the Union Budget. Usually, it is tabled a day before the finance minister presents the Budget.