BJP is predicted to retain Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur, while Goa and Punjab may return a hung assembly where Congress is not in the driver's seat, a pre-poll survey predicted on Monday.
AAP has the advantage in Punjab, while BJP may romp home finally in Goa, according to the Republic TV-P-MARQ survey.
It predicted Uttar Pradesh for the BJP but with a reduced margin from the 2017 polls – from 312 to 252-272 seats with 41.3 per cent vote-share in a House of 403. Their main opponent Samajwadi Party could win 111-131 seats with 33.1 per cent votes, increasing its MLAs by more than double from the 47 it won last time.
BSP could further shrink, winning only 8-16 seats as against 19 it won in the 2017 polls, while Congress' may slide further down in one of the most politically crucial states, as it may win only 3-9 seats as against seven it won earlier, according to the survey. Others could win up to four seats.
A survey by India TV-Ground Zero Research also showed the BJP winning but with lesser numbers at 230-235 seats (39.32 per cent votes). SP could see a three-fold increase in its seats to 160-165 (36.2 per cent), this survey predicted, while it gave Congress 2-7 seats (5.54 per cent), BSP 2-3 (12.99 per cent) and others 1-3.
According to the Republic TV-P-MARQ survey, Punjab may see the emergence of AAP as the single largest party with 50-56 seats with 37.8 per cent votes, just short of the half-way mark of 59. Punjab is the lone state where Congress is in power among the five states going to polls in February-March.
Congress could win 42-48 seats with 35.1 per cent votes while Akali Dal could get 13-17 (15.8 per cent) and BJP alliance 1-3 seats (5.7 per cent), the survey showed, indicating that former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who left the Congress, and his party would not be able to make a mark for themselves even as they could damage Congress.
Uttarakhand is also not a happy story for Congress, if this survey is to be believed, as it's hope to overthrow the ruling BJP may not fructify. Though the BJP may win only 36-42 seats (39.9 per cent votes), down from 56 it won in 2017, the Congress is predicted to win only 25-31 seats and garner 37.5 per cent votes. AAP may win two seats.
Manipur is also likely to go the BJP way as it may win 31-37 seats (39.2 per cent votes) in a House of 60 while Congress may win only 13-19. NPP (3-9) and NPF (1-5) are other parties that may win seats in Manipur where BJP managed to usurp power after engineering large-scale defections from Congress, which was the single largest party in the state in 2017.
The survey is showing a hung assembly in Goa where BJP may get 16-20 seats (30.5 per cent votes), one short of majority in the best-case scenario in a House of 40. Congress is likely to get 9-13 seats (22.2 per cent) while AAP 4-8 seats (12.2 per cent) and Trinamool Congress 1-5 seats (12.2 per cent). Others may get 1-3 seats.
The vote-share and the seats that are predicted to win by Trinamool and AAP indicate that the division in the Opposition may be detrimental to the chances of Congress.
Check out latest DH videos here