Maharashtra’s politics has changed – at least for next few years – with the battle between the “original” Shiv Sena and the “real” Shiv Sena.
A couple of weeks ago, the political space was divided among four major political parties – BJP, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar-led NCP and Congress.
While the Congress-NCP alliance, despite their rift, had managed to rule for 15 years at a stretch between 1999-2014, the Shiv Sena-BJP came to govern the state in two phases – 1995-1999 and 2014-19.
In October-November, the situation changed and Shiv Sena broke ties with 30-year-old ally BJP and joined hands with NCP-Congress and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi, a marquee anti-BJP coalition.
Also Read: Sena vs Sena: Can Uddhav reclaim the reins?
But now, the BJP seems to have managed to split the Shiv Sena into one led by the Thackeray-family and another by Eknath Shinde.
While the Thackeray-camp claims that they are the “original” Shiv Sena, Shinde has said that his group is the “real” Shiv Sena and draws inspiration from Balasaheb’s Hindutva and the ideals of firebrand leader ‘Dharmaveer’ Anand Dighe.
No single party can form a government in Maharashtra, which has 288 seats in the state assembly.
Also, between 1995-2019, only BJP could cross the 100-mark when it bagged 106 seats in the 2019 assembly polls – thanks to the Narendra Modi-wave and the saffron national party’s election management.
Incidentally, Shiv Sena has never crossed the 100-mark – and its best was 73 in the 1995 polls.
Thackeray’s trouble shooter Sanjay Raut claimed that if mid-term polls are held now, the Shiv Sena would get over 100 seats – given the anger among the people against the rebellion and the growing support base.
But, Shinde, with his deputy Devendra Fadnavis by his side has said that Shiv Sena-BJP together would get 200 seats in the state.
While the Congress high-command is in a state of crisis and the Maharashtra leaders constantly in a state of rift, the NCP is preparing hard and has targeted 100 plus seats and the BJP is planning the next move.
However, before concluding anything one has to wait for the 11 July hearing in the Supreme Court - which would hear a bunch of pleas vis-a-vis the political crisis in Maharashtra.