Exit polls on Saturday projected an edge for the Tejashwi Yadav-led 'Mahagathbandhan' (Grand Alliance) with two predicting two-third majority in the just concluded Bihar Assembly elections that may see the ouster of JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar from the seat of power after a 15-year uninterrupted rule.
While almost all exit polls projected that the Grand Alliance may win around 120 seats and the NDA around 105-115 seats, Today's Chanakya polls gave the opposition alliance a whopping 180 (+/-11) seats riding on an anti-incumbency wave, while relegating the ruling JD(U)-BJP coalition to 55 (+/-11) in a house of 243 MLAs.
The India Today-My Axis poll also gave the Grand Alliance 139-161 votes, while restricting the NDA to 69-91 seats. Only the poll by Dainik Bhaskar gave the NDA a definite edge, projecting 120-127 seats for the incumbent, while the Grand Alliance was said to be winning only 71-81 seats, LJP 12-13 and Others 19-27.
A party or coalition would need 122 seats for majority in a 243-member Bihar Assembly. The counting of votes for the three-phased elections will be held on November 10.
Eight out of nine exit polls analysed by DH gave the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by the RJD and having Congress and Left parties as its members, more numbers that the incumbent NDA, while a handful showing that the BJP is likely to emerge as a major force pushing its ally JD(U) behind even if it may not get power.
The poll of exit polls projection by TV channels also gave the Grand Alliance an edge in forming the government.
The campaign has seen Tejashwi emerging as a crowd-puller as he criss-crossed the state attending over a dozen campaign meetings daily. If the exit polls turn true, it would be a huge leg up for the young leader as his father Lalu Prasad, the RJD supremo who is in jail in a corruption case, could not overthrow Nitish.
For Nitish, once considered as a probable Prime Ministerial face, the exit polls indicate a diminished stature.
The exit polls also may be a dampner for LJP's Chirag Paswan, who had come out of the NDA in the state following disagreement with Nitish regime, as his party is projected to win only a couple of seats, while the Upendra Kushwaha-led alliance also is faring badly. For Congress, the exit poll results do not show much gain as it is predicted to win 21 to 30 seats, as against its tally of 27 in the present Assembly.
According to the C-Voter survey, the NDA was poised to get 116 (104-128) seats, while the Grand Alliance may bag 120 (108-131). LJP, which came out of the NDA in Bihar opposing the JD(U), may bag 1-3 seats.
Party-wise projections by C-Voter showed that RJD may win 81-89 seats, while its ally Congress may win 21-29 seats and Left parties 6-13 seats. BJP is likely to win 66-74 seats, while JD(U) may shrink to 38-46 seats.
The Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat survey also gave the Grand Alliance an edge with 128 seats (118-138), while the NDA may get 104 (91-117). LJP is poised to get 7 seats. Party-wise projections, however, showed that JD(U) will get 71 seats, while BJP may get 53. RJD will be the single largest party, as in other exit polls, with 80 followed by Congress 27.
The TV9 Bharatvarsh poll gave NDA 115 seats, while Grand Alliance had the edge with 120 seats. LJP and 'others' may get four seats each. The India Ahead-ETG exit poll also gave Grand Alliance 120 seats, and the NDA was pegged at 114.
The NewsX-DVresearch gave 116-138 to the opposition alliance, while it gave 91-119 to the NDA. ETG-India Ahead poll gave Grand Alliance 111-129 seats as against 106-122 for the NDA.
Peoples Pulse exit poll gave RJD 85–95, Congress 15-20, Left parties 3-5, LJP 3-5, GDSF and Independents 5-13, BJP 65–75 and JD(U) 25–35.