About 500 kilometers from the Madhya Pradesh capital Bhopal, Sadhvi Pragya Thakur is not a factor in the ravines of Chambal once known for deprivation and dacoits. What resonates here more than hard-line Hindutva is caste identity.
A few months ago, the Congress had won 26 assembly seats out of 34 in the Gwalior-Chambal region, where Jyotiraditya Scindia factor worked more in personality politics.
In Morena that shares the border with Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati’s BSP is also a factor. Union Minister for Rural Development Narendra Singh Tomar finds himself in choppy waters, though the chopper flying high profile campaign of BSP candidate Kartar Singh Bhadana, a former UP MLA, could somewhat help Tomar. Tomar is considered the ‘Chanakya’ of politics in Chambal, who is credited with making an breaking the careers of many a budding politicians in the region.
Scheduled castes constitute 25% of the voters in Morena, followed by Kshatriyas (Tomar’s caste), Brahmins, Kushwahas, Gujjars, Vaishya and Rawats. Brahmins, who voted for the BJP enthusiastically last time, have not warmed up to Tomar this time, after the BJP denied ticket to its sitting MP from Morena Anoop Mishra, nephew of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
In the peak of Modi wave, Tomar had changed his constituency of Morena and contested from Gwalior. Both Mishra and Tomar had then won their seats. This time Tomar is back to Morena but the going has got tougher.
Devesh Dandotia, owner of Indian Café House in Morena says that Congress candidate Ram Niwas Rawat stands a chance this time. While Badhana fielded by the BSP has been trying to emerge as a dark horse, Munna Singh Gujar from Rancholi village says “Gurjar and Brahmin votes are not going to Tomar."
Congress leader Sachin Pilot, a prominent Gujjar face, will address a rally in Gujjar-dominated regions in Bhind on the last day of the campaign. In contrast, BJP candidate Sandhya Rai, a former MLA, could create history by becoming another woman MP from Bhind, a region famous for its gun culture. If that happens, it will be after 42 years that the seat will be held by a woman MP. Late Vijaya Raje Scindia had won the Bhind seat in 1977 from Bharatiya Jana Sangh.
Bhind is a BJP stronghold as the party never lost here since 1989. BJP law maker Ashok Argal had won this seat in 2009 while retired IAS officer Bhagirath Prasad won the seat in 2014. Both are not contesting the seat. Congress has fielded an RTI activist Devasish Jararia.