Will there be an alliance or not? All eyes set on the outcome of the political equations in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya as the three Northeastern states are looking forward to the results of the Assembly elections on Thursday.
In what is considered as an important poll verdict ahead of Lok Sabha elections next year, the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress and CPI(M) are expecting a lot from their respective alliances in Tripura. Poll observers believe that the success of the seat sharing arrangement between the CPI(M) and Congress, a first in Tripura, could be a boost to the Opposition parties calling for opposition unity for the Lok Sabha polls at the national level. The left parties fieled in 47 seats while the Congress contested 13.
Eyes will also be on Tipra Motha, a regional party, that rejected the offer for alliance both from the ruling and the Opposition camps and contested the elections in 42 out of 60 seats with its demand for "Greater Tipraland '' for the indigenous Tripuris.
In Nagaland, the ruling NDPP-BJP alliance is comparatively better placed as the Opposition Naga People's Front (NPF) and Congress has contested only in 22 constituencies each out of the 59 seats. The NDPP-BJP contested the elections on a 40:20 seat sharing arrangement. BJP expects that its tally will increase this time, from 12 in 2018, owing to its work for peace and development in the insurgency-hit state in the past five years.
In Meghalaya, poll observers are expecting a fractured mandate again as all 12 parties have contested elections without any pre-poll ties. No political party has got absolute majority in Meghalaya since 1976. The actual battle, this time, however, is between the National People's Party (NPP) and Trinamool Congress, which became a significant player for the first time in the state.
The United Democratic Party (UDP), a regional party, focussing on the issues of Khasi and Jaintia tribes, could be another significant player. In the 2018 elections, the UDP had won six seats and played a key role in the formation of Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government led by the NPP. BJP was a minor ally in the government with two MLAs. The saffron party, however, has contested the elections in all 60 seats this time. It is for us to see is the BJP can increase its tally in the Christian-dominant state.
Most of the exit polls suggested a comfortable majority for BJP and its allies in Tripura and Nagaland. But the Opposition parties in Tripura claimed that the results on Thursday will be a "shocker" for the ruling alliance. Tipra Motha too refused to accept the exit-poll predictions. The exit-polls suggested that NPP could emerge as the single largest party in Meghalaya.
When asked about the results, Assam CM and BJP leader, Himanta Biswa Sarma on Wednesday said that the NDA would retain power in all three states. "There will be no change in the governments and there will be no alliance with Congress and Trinamool too."
Sarma is the convenor of North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a forum of BJP and its regional allies in the Northeast. Tipra Motha and Trinamool are not part of the NEDA. On Wednesday evening, Sarma met NPP president and Meghalaya CM Conrad K Sangma in Guwahati, hinting that the NPP and BJP could again join hands to form the next government.
Polling in Tripura was conducted on February 16 while the in Nagaland and Meghalaya it was conducted on February 27. Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya registered 89.95 per cent, 85.90 per cent and 85.27 per cent pollings, respectively.
The counting of votes will begin from 8am on Thursday.