Kupendra Reddy, BJP and JD(S) alliance candidate, will find the going tough in the Rajya Sabha elections scheduled for Tuesday.
He is short of five votes, and unless he is able to swing them, the alliance will face a second defeat after the one in the recent election to the Bangalore Teachers Constituency.
The alliance is putting up a brave front, but party insiders are aware the odds are tough. Reports suggest at least two JD(S) legislators are upset with their party leader H D Kumaraswamy for allying with the BJP. They may cross vote, or not turn up at all, making it that much more difficult for Kupendra Reddy.
The BJP is grappling with its own problems. Rumours are swirling that at least two of its 66 MLAs will not show up on election day.
The JD(S) is trying to keep its flock together, and has herded its MLAs to a hotel, where they will stay overnight. The BJP is not as nervous, and has allowed its MLAs to be on their own.
The elections on Tuesday are a numbers game. To win, each candidate needs 45 votes. This is a cakewalk for the Congress candidates as the party has 134 MLAs. The number of MLAs was 135 before Raja Venkatappa Naik, who represented Surapur, died on February 26.
Similarly, the BJP candidates are comfortably placed, as the party has 66 MLAs. They are sure to win even if a couple of MLAs don’t turn up, or cross vote.
The biggest struggle is for alliance candidate Kupendra Reddy. He belongs to the JD(S), and is assured of 19 votes from his party and 21 from the BJP. Together, the votes add up to 40, and he will still fall short by five votes.
“In case two each from the alliance parties refrain from voting, it will be impossible for Kupendra Reddy to win,” said a JD(S) source.
The JD(S) hopes to get the votes of independent MLAs Gali Janardhana Reddy, Latha Mallikarjun, Darshan Puttannaiah and Puttaswamy Gowda.
Janardhana Reddy said he had met Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, and he was still not sure which side to throw his weight behind.
He said former chief minister and BJP leader B S Yediyurappa and Shivakumar had approached him for his support. “But I have not come to a decision,” Reddy said.
Independent MLA Latha Mallikarjun has announced that her vote will be in favour of the Congress.
Amid all the speculation, Kupendra Reddy said he was confident of winning. “Last time I lost by a single vote, but this time I need five votes and I have faith in God. I hope some MLAs will vote for me, transcending party politics,” he said.
G T Deve Gowda, senior leader of the JD(S), invoked the idea of conscience votes. “Our candidate is a very good human being and if we get conscience votes, he will win,” he said.
Top BJP and JD(S) leaders met secretly on Monday to discuss strategies and prospects, sources said.