Congress leader Rahul Gandhi meets J&K National Conference President Farooq Abdullah, in Srinagar.
Credit: PTI Photo
Srinagar: With exit polls indicating a potential hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, intense political negotiations are underway as major parties, including the National Conference-Congress alliance and the BJP, seek to secure support from likely independent candidates.
While many exit polls favor the NC-Congress coalition, they may still fall short of the 46 MLAs needed to form a government in the 90-member assembly. The BJP is projected to win between 29 and 32 seats, primarily in the Jammu region, making it difficult for them to establish a government without additional support.
Sources reveal that senior BJP leaders are actively reaching out to independent candidates and heads of smaller parties like People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone, Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari and Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid’s AIP.
If the BJP manages to secure around 30 seats, it may need support from 16 to 17 additional MLAs to govern. However, only about seven to eight independent MLAs from Kashmir are expected to win, limiting their options.
The BJP also hopes to gain traction through five MLAs nominated by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, who will make these appointments immediately after the results are announced, potentially influencing government formation.
J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina has expressed confidence that the party will form a government with the backing of “like-minded parties and independents.”
On the other hand, sources said, the NC-Congress alliance is reportedly courting the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for support. The PDP is anticipated to secure around 10 seats and may consider offering outside support to the NC-Congress coalition if necessary.
NC president Farooq Abdullah has indicated openness to forming a government with the PDP's support, stating, “We can be rivals in elections, but I have no objections.” However, his son Omar Abdullah dismissed the idea as “premature,” urging caution until the votes are counted.
“They (PDP) haven't extended support, they haven't offered support and we don't know what the voters have decided yet, so I really wish we could put a lid on all this premature speculation for the next 24 hours,” Omar posted on X.
Vote counting for the 90-member assembly will begin at 8 AM on Tuesday, with results expected to emerge by the afternoon. Since June 2018, J&K has lacked an elected government following the BJP's withdrawal from its alliance with the PDP, which led to Mehbooba Mufti's resignation as chief minister.
The situation changed on August 5, 2019, when the BJP-led central government revoked Article 370, which granted special status to J&K, and divided the region into two Union Territories.
On December 11, 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the abrogation of Article 370 and instructed the central government to conduct elections in J&K by September 30, 2024, while also calling for the restoration of statehood as soon as possible.
Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.