Jammu and Kashmir National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chief Mehbooba Mufti; J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina
Credit: PTI Images
As of Tuesday evening (October 8), trends in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections show the NC-Congress alliance is poised to form the government in the Union Territory.
Despite exit polls predicting a hung assembly, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, led by the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and Congress, has secured a significant margin ahead of other parties.
The Congress, in partnership with its ally, the National Conference, is set for a comeback. The NC is leading in 42 seats, while Congress is ahead in eight constituencies in the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Assembly.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the results were bittersweet. The party mounted a spirited challenge but fell short of the numbers needed to form the government. However, the BJP is set to secure the highest vote share in the Union Territory, with an estimated 25.63 per cent, compared to the National Conference’s 23.44 per cent. The BJP performed well in the Jammu region and in districts with a predominantly Hindu population, while the I.N.D.I.A. bloc outperformed in the Kashmir region.
During the campaign, the NC-Congress alliance focused on economic issues and the BJP government's perceived shortcomings. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in January 2023 also bolstered the party’s presence in the region.
Calling the results “logon ka raj,” National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah said, “After 10 years, people have given their mandate to us. It will not be ‘police raj’ here but ‘logon ka raj’. We will try to release innocent people who were imprisoned. We have to build trust between Hindus and Muslims. I am hopeful that I.N.D.I.A. alliance partners will join us in restoring J&K’s statehood.”
Jammu Region
While the BJP has limited influence in the Kashmir Valley, it has been the dominant force in Jammu for the past three elections since 2014.
Out of the 47 seats it contested in the Jammu region, the BJP is leading or winning in 29 seats, marking its best-ever performance. The party’s candidates have won in several constituencies, including Akhnoor, Bahu, Bashohli, Bhadarwah, Billawar, Bishnah, Chenani, Chhamb, Doda West, Hiranagar, Jammu East, and more.
In 2014, the BJP swept the Hindu-majority Jammu region, winning 19 of the 24 seats. This year, the party won six of the 13 seats in the Muslim-majority districts of Jammu.
However, the party lost two key Hindu-majority seats: Bani and Ramban. Independent candidate Dr. Rameshwar Singh defeated BJP's Jewan Lal in Bani by a margin of 18,672 votes, while BJP's Rakesh Singh Thakur finished third in Ramban with 17,254 votes.
The Aam Aadmi Party also made its debut in J&K, with Mehraj Malik winning in Doda by 4,770 votes.
South Kashmir
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which once dominated South Kashmir, is facing one of its worst performances.
Once a PDP stronghold, South Kashmir has delivered a different verdict this time. The PDP managed to hold onto Pulwama and Tral but lost key seats in Anantnag, Kulgam, and Shopian.
Iltija Mufti, daughter of PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, lost from the Srigufwara-Bijbehara constituency, a high-profile seat in South Kashmir, against NC veteran Bashir Ahmad Shah Veeri.
In Dooru, Congress general secretary and former minister Ghulam Ahmad Mir won.
Central Kashmir
The National Conference has long dominated the politics of Central Kashmir. Of the eight seats in Srinagar, NC has won seven, with its ally Congress ahead in one. Srinagar is considered a bastion of the NC, which won all eight seats in 2008 and five in 2014, even when its popularity was at a low.
NC leader and former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah has won both the Ganderbal and Budgam seats. The Ganderbal seat is particularly significant, having been represented by three generations of the Abdullah family: Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah in 1977, Farooq Abdullah in 1983, 1987, and 1996, and Omar Abdullah in 2008.
North Kashmir
This region is dominated by separatists and mainstream parties with the NC and PDP all having a strong presence here.
In 2014, the NC won three seats while the PDP took seven. This time, PDP’s Mohammad Fayaz won the Kupwara seat, while NC’s Javid Hassan Baig claimed victory in Baramulla. In Uri, NC’s Sajjad Shafi defeated Independent candidate Taj Mohi Ud Din by 11,508 votes. In Gurez, NC’s Nazir Ahmad Khan defeated BJP’s Faqeer Mohammad Khan by 1,049 votes.
In Bandipora, Nizam Uddin Bhat of Congress secured the seat, while JKPC candidate Sajad Gani Lone won in Handwara. Awami Ittehad Party candidate Khurshid Ahmad Sheikh, the brother of Engineer Rashid, won the Langate constituency.
The banned Jamaat-e-Islami, which have a presence in North Kashmir, did not win any seats in the region.
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Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.
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