All roads lead to the Northeast as it is the season of husting in three states -Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. While Tripura cast its vote on February 16, Nagaland and Meghalaya will vote on February 27. Even as the voting process is yet to get over, every poll pundit is eager to know who will emerge as the kingmaker.
Out of these three states, Nagaland and Meghalaya are notorious for fractured mandates. On the other hand, Tripura has seen a stable government in the last Assembly.
Meghalaya
After its formation in 1972, Meghalaya saw the All Party Hills Leaders' Conference forming the government independently. After that, the story has remained unsteady, with coalition governments ruling the roost.
There are three important regions in the state: Khasi Hills, Jaintia Hills and Garo Hills. However, no party testing its luck in these elections has a robust sway in any of these regions.
Psephologists are of the opinion that the contest will boil down to two parties: The National People's Party (NPP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The former is headed by Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma while for the latter, it is former Chief Minister Mukul Sharma who calls the shots. It may be recalled that as many as 12 Congress MLAs defected to the TMC under his aegis earlier.
Now, even as the poll experts prophesy that the elections may not have a clear winner, it is the United Democratic Party (UDP) that might have the cherry on the cake.
In the 2018 elections, the UDP won 6 seats. It won 2 more seats in the bye-elections, taking its tally to 8.
The UDP has cast its spell on the Khasi and Jaintia Hills, thereby enjoying a robust regional presence. Since 1998, it has been a part of several governments, making it an infallible ally.
The regional party now hopes to pull off a coup by winning unprecedented seats and placing itself in a remarkable position so as to dictate terms to others. Interestingly, the NPP is facing graft charges and this might just be what the doctor ordered for UDP to perform well.
The magic number of the Assembly seats is 30. The UDP is contesting 46 seats and fancies its chances thoroughly. Its chief Metbah Lyngdoh too sounds confident. "We hope to be at the forefront. With that goal in mind, we are moving ahead. We will win a good number of seats. It is due to this confidence that we are contesting 46 seats, 13 more than the last time," he was quoted by The New Indian Express.
With no party being seen to plunder this number, the UDP might just be a godsend for those hankering to govern the state.
Nagaland
Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) leader and Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio will be the protagonist of the Nagaland government formation efforts.
In 2018, the BJP and NDPP had a tie-up with BJP contesting 20 seats and the NDPP, 40 seats. This time too, there has been no change in the formula.
The NDPP is a regional party. In political collaboration with the BJP, it has given a stable government. These views were echoed by none other than Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Assam chief minister. “The strong friendship between the two parties helped us provide the people of Nagaland a stable government for five years. Carrying the friendship forward, we had an agreement that Neiphiu Rio ji will be the chief minister again if the BJP and NDPP retain power,” Sarma said as reported by The Hindu.
Rio has had a chequered career thus far. In 2002, he defected to Naga People’s Front (NPF) from Congress and became the chief minister. Later in 2014, with greater ambitions of gaining entry to the Indian Parliament, he stepped down and contested the Parliamentary elections and won the lone LS seat as a candidate from the NPF.
However, in 2016, he tried getting back the CM’s chair but did not succeed. It was only in 2018 that he joined the NDPP and had a poll pact with the BJP, which at that point, was NPF’s ally.
He is unchallenged in the ‘poll’ position this time as well!
Tripura
The BJP is placed firmly in Tripura, in alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). This time, the fight ends up triangularly with the CPI(M) and Left combine and the new party Tipra Motha forming the other two vertices.
At the helm of affairs of this party is Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, a royal scion. With tribal population abounding in Tripura, it is said Pradyot has made a deep impact in tribal constituencies. His party also won the 2021 tribal council (TTAADC) polls, thus giving him a massive fillip.
The party’s greatest demand has been for Greater Tipraland, which is nothing but a separate state for the indigenous people. These indigenous people have been reduced to minority status, due to migrants from Bangladesh. This exhortation for new land has found consonance with the tribal population and earned him massive support.
His party is contesting the elections independently and is hopeful of winning 20 seats dominated by tribals. In fact, he has even refused any alliance unless given a written assurance of the Tipra issue.
The BJP is contesting 55 seats, leaving the other 5 seats to the IPFT.
In the event of Tipra Motha eating into the votes of the saffron party, it will be left running helter-skelter in order to ferret a majority. In such a scenario, Pradyot could well end up in the driver’s seat.
In the 60-member Assembly, 20 seats are reserved for tribal areas and the BJP won a total of 35 seats to form a government in 2018, with half of them coming from the tribal region.